The National Retail Federation says holiday sales might exceed expectations.

The major trade group’s economist, Jack Kleinhenz, said Friday that spending in November and December could grow as much as 11.5% compared with the same period a year ago — higher than many retail analysts and NRF itself had predicted.

The NRF had already called for a record holiday seasonWe project that in October sales will rise to between Last year, 8.5% and 10.5% respectively. According to the group, November and December sales would reach an all-time record of $834.4 billion and $959 billion. Sales forecasts do not include expenditures at restaurants, gas stations, and automobile dealers.

The NRF reported that holiday sales rose 8.2% in 2019 to $777.3 Billion.

Kleinhenz claimed that “people have the capacity to spend” and said so in an interview. Kleinhenz cited the strong balance sheets that resulted from the pandemic and low unemployment rates, as well as the desire to reunite with family members for holidays.

Kleinhenz admitted that there were unknown factors. These include how consumers may react to the micron-based variant, and how it might affect their shopping habits and how they celebrate.

In a press release, he stated “There isn’t a crystal ball that can provide an answer. But the most recent data are encouraging and provides valuable insights.” In fact, we could see the season turning out better than expected.

This holiday season has been a success. has had a different rhythm and unique challenges. Some shoppers bought gifts before the product was available and to avoid shipping delays. In the face of congestion at ports and shortages in truck drivers, retailers worked hard to ensure that goods moved. Consumers are also suffering from high fuel prices and inflated materials. finding fewer deals whether they shop online or in stores.

This pushed a lot more spending forward into October and November. stealing some of the thunder from major shopping holidays like Black Friday and Cyber Monday.According to NRF data, Thanksgiving extended weekend saw a decrease in shoppers and spending on average compared with the two previous years.

Kleinhenz believes that even after they’ve bought many presents, shoppers will continue to spend. Kleinhenz said that despite having an earlier October, and then a very strong November, it was clear to see why. People are creatures of routine. Between now and the holidays, there’s plenty of time.

Inflation will account for at least part of the season’s increased sales. This has happened to many gifts, from electronics and toys to clothing. Retailers including Macy’s Kohl’sHave also talked about the importance of having reduced inventory and seeing higher consumer demand — which means they can sell more merchandise at full price and have little that winds up on the markdown rack.

Matt Shay, NRF Chief Executive, said that the omicron could boost holiday sales. You should book a holiday or purchase a gift voucher for a spa-day day instead, said Shay. some of that experiential spending may shift back into goods.