LONDON, (Reuters) – The Bank of England will make a new decision on next week whether it wants to be the first major central bank to increase interest rates in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic.

On Nov. 4, the BoE stunned financial markets when 7-2 votes were cast by its policymakers to maintain Bank Rate at 0.1%. This despite it stating that inflation is heading towards 5%.

Investors had previously read comments from Governor Andrew Bailey that indicated a high likelihood of a November rate increase.

The data suggests that since then the labour market has resisted the removal of the government’s furlough programme – something which the BoE wanted before raising rates – while inflation reached an all-time high of 4.2% for the 10th consecutive month.

However, the Omicron coronavirus has caused some MPC officials be more cautious about the recovery of the economy. Omicron may also increase inflation by aggravating supply chains problems.

On Dec. 16, and February 3, the BoE’s Monetary Policy Committee will announce their next policy decisions.

MPC MEMBERS WHO Almost Backed a Rate Hike ON Nov. 4

ANDREW BAILEY GOVERNOR

Dec. 1 Bailey: The direct economic consequences of COVID are now less severe than they were in the first quarter last year. This was when GDP fell to a record low. However, COVID still has strong impacts on our lives.

November 20th: You’re living in an extremely febrile world ….. (The inflation picture is dual-sided. Both sides have risks. Our concern is that, if the second round effects are triggered, it might be raised for longer.

Nov. 15, 2009: “I am very worried about the inflation position …. Although the November decision is a close call …. The situation on the labor market looks much tighter to me.

HUW PAILL, CHIEF ECONOMIST

Nov. 26th: I believe the ground is now prepared for policy action …. The incoming data supports the conclusion that recovery continues. Inflationary pressures are also created by supply disruptions, which can weigh down activity. “The labour market is very tight.”

POLICYMAKERS THAT VOTED TO RAISE RATES ON NOVEMBER 4

MICHAEL SUNDERS, EXTERNAL MPC MEMBER

Dec. 3, 2012: Given that the Omicron COVID mutation has just been discovered, it could prove to be a good idea to wait for more information about its potential effects on economic outcomes, public health, and the wider economy. However, it could prove costly to delay.

DAVE RAMSDEN, DEPUTY GOVERNOR (MARKETS & BANKING)

Nov. 5, 2009: “That UK move (inflation expectations) above, materially above, which was a fairly stable historical average has been something that I have been concerned about.”

SOUNDS LIKE YOU ARE MORE ANGRY ABOUT THE INFLATION PRSURES

BEN BROADBENT, DEPUTY GOVERNOR (MONETARY POLICY)

Dec. 6, 2009: The aggregate rate of inflation will likely rise over the coming months, and there are good chances that it will comfortably surpass 5% by the time the Ofgem cap on retail energy prices (regulator), is next adjusted in April.”

“It is more probable than not, looking ahead two years as well, that these pressures upon traded goods prices will subside rather than intensify,”

Broadbent stated that inflation could also be caused by the employment market.

SOUNDING LESS ANGRY ABOUT INFLATION THEAT CATHERINE MANN, EXTERNAL MEMBERS

November 30, 2012: “It’s too early to talk about timing or how high the rate will go.”

SILVANA TENEYRO, EXTERNAL MEMBE

November 24, 2012: “In the coming months, we’ll be learning more about important parts of our economy. This will inform my personal decision. “The medium-term is what I consider myself to be more realistic.”

JONATHAN HASKEL EXTERNAL MEMBRAN

November 23rd: Haskel stated that he is in the “team transitory”, regarding the issue of inflation’s persistence. But, wage growth may be higher than productivity growth. This is a concern because Britain has had a weak economy for over 10 years.

NON SPOKEN RECENTLY ON MONETARY POLICE

JON CUNLIFFE, DEPUTY GOVERNOR (FINANCIAL STABILITY)

July 14, 2008: We are seeing an increase in demand. Inflation is being driven by constrictions in the supply. This is the clear question: How persistent are these forces? We’d expect them to be there, though we think they will only last a while.