If you invade Ukraine, there will be a high price to pay
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Before they leave for their military service in the Russian Army, conscripts are lined up at railway stations.
TASS – Getty Images| TASS | Getty Images
BRUSSELS — The European Union is concerned about Russia’s “aggressive” stance toward its neighbors, warning Moscow that it will pay a “high price” if it invades Ukraine.
U.S. officials said earlier this month that Russia could launch a military incursionAbout 175,000 soldiers will be able to enter Ukraine from early 2022. CNBC spoke to Russian officials Wednesday, but they were unable to comment.
Talks in Brussels will be dominated by the highly sensitive topic on Thursday when 27 EU leaders gather.
“At this point in time, Russia is choosing an aggressive posture vis-à-vis its neighbors. Ursula von der Leyen (President of European Commission) said Wednesday, “Russia will continue to be aggressive against Ukraine because the European Union as well as its G-7 partners are very clear about this.”
In Berlin, Olaf Scholz was the new German chancellor.
Scholz addressed Germany’s parliament Wednesday and warned of Russia paying a heavy price for its decision to invade Ukraine. According to Politico, Scholz spoke out in support of a “constructive dialog” with Russia.
“Always worry about our big neighbour”
EU officials in Brussels indicated that Moscow was not open to talks. CNBC spoke to an EU diplomat who, due to sensitive issues, did not wish to identify himself because he was unsure if talks with Moscow were possible. He said that the Kremlin would not allow dialogue unless the Ukraine question is not brought up.
It is clear that talks between Russia and the EU would not be possible without a substantial de-escalation at the Ukrainian border.
Some officials took it a step further.
CNBC reported that Estonia’s Prime Minister Kaja Kallas stated that Russia should give Crimea to Ukraine in order to reopen the EU-Russia summit. Russia annexed Black Sea peninsula in 2014 to defy Western leaders.
Kallas said that “if we step towards Russia and forget everything we have said in 2014, then it is weak.”
Kallas acknowledged that Russia is a NATO member, and that she was concerned about Russia’s big neighbour.
“We see Crimea clearly, but we don’t see Donbass.” [in Ukraine]”We also see Georgia. They’ve taken the steps that have hurt other countries. We should all be worried,” she added.
European leaders will be expressing their solidarity with Ukraine on Thursday.
The EU could react in this way.
It is important to ask how far the EU will go. Criticians claim that Russia’s current EU sanctions, which were imposed in response to the 2014 annexed, don’t do enough damage to President Vladimir Putin.
Kallas, however, defended the European approach when speaking with CNBC.
We have intelligence to show that sanctions really do hurt. Russia has seen its GDP fall by 2% over the years as a result of the sanctions. She added that Europe must have strategic patience and recognize the fact that it takes time for economic sanctions to take effect.
This might end up being the route that the EU takes.
Von der Leyen stated Wednesday that “our response to any additional aggression might take the form a robust scaling up and expansion of these existing sanction.”
The bloc might go further, she said. She said, “We are prepared to take additional and unprecedented steps with serious consequences in Russia.”
Russia: Many problems
However, there are other Russian actions which have caused concern among EU officials and leaders. In October, Moldova’s Prime Minister Natalia Gavrilita told ReutersGazprom, the Russian energy giant, did not offer a 30-year old annual rollover, but instead offered a three-fold price rise. Russia denies the allegations.
Von der Leyen accused Russia Wednesday of “blatant attempts to intimidate Moldova’s reformist government”. squeezing their gas supplies at a time when energy prices are high. Elle added, “We must protect our societies & democracies against this type of cynical Geopolitical Play.”
EU leaders believe that tensions are linked at the moment. Belarus-Poland borderThis instability is a problem.
Von der Leyen stated Wednesday that the “situation at our border in Belarus must be understood in a larger context. Especially the deliberate attempt destabilize security of our democracy and those of our neighbours.”
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