By Julie Steenhuysen

CHICAGO, (Reuters) – Scientists are rewriting the expectations of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States and Europe as the Omicron variant grows in popularity.

   Just weeks ago, disease experts were predicting that countries would begin to emerge from the pandemic in 2022 after enduring a series of surges driven by the Alpha, Beta, Gamma and Delta variants. People who have been exposed to coronavirus through vaccination and other infections would be the first.

COVID could become an endemic in these areas, with occasional or less severe outbreaks. Only wealthy nations have access to vaccines for COVID, which could make it more accessible by 2021.

This hope is being undermined by the rapid spread and apparent inability to reinfect others at an even higher rate of Omicron mutation, which was discovered late November.

Already countries have reverted to earlier measures in response to the pandemic. This includes limiting travel, making masks mandatory, and warning against large winter holiday gatherings. Experts told Reuters that it’s not back to square 1, but more people will be required to receive COVID vaccines to avoid the worst pandemic.

“People are sick of this pandemic and God know I am too,” stated Dr. Angela Rasmussen from the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization of University of Saskatchewan, Canada.

    Even after COVID becomes a more endemic disease, new variants will spawn outbreaks and seasonal surges for years to come.

    “There’s always going to be a baseline number of COVID cases, hospitalizations and deaths,” said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious disease expert at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. “Many people don’t understand that.”

We hope that the virus will eventually diminish to a point where it no longer disrupts our lives. The virus can still be a menace, but living with COVID-19 isn’t an assurance.

People will have to adapt to the new variants and be prepared to do so, Dr. Tom Frieden, the chief executive officer of Resolve to Save Lives and former director at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, stated. It’s important to understand that it will be more safe to perform certain tasks at times than other times.

    PANDEMIC PHASE ENDING IN 2022?

    Some scientists are not entirely ready to abandon hope that some parts of the world will emerge from the pandemic next year. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), more than 270,000,000 people are now infected by COVID. An estimated 57% have received at least one vaccination, which is potentially providing protection that was not available two years ago.

    “Even if that immunity is not as good against Omicron, it doesn’t mean that it’s worthless. “And that immunity is more effective in fighting serious illness than it are against getting infected at any time,” stated Dr. David Dowdy at Johns Hopkins.

    So far, most of the studies looking at the effectiveness of vaccines against Omicron have focused on neutralizing antibodies, which latch on to the virus and prevent it from entering and infecting cells. Omicron is able to escape neutralization, according to blood tests from people who have been fully vaccinated. A booster dose may restore this protection.

    Immune system T cells, which destroy infected cells, also appear still to be able to recognize the variant. This second line of defense, according to experts, will help prevent deaths and hospitalizations.

According to Dr. Celine Gunder at New York University, “You still have people who are vulnerable” as they aren’t yet vaccinated. It will still be some time until the world goes from an epidemic COVID-19 to one, she said.

   In the meantime, living with COVID in 2022 will likely mean assessing local risks and protecting oneself through vaccination, masking and social distancing.

    “When I go to the store this afternoon, what helps me is to know how much COVID is in my community,” said Dr. Robert Wachter, chair of the Department of Medicine at University of California, San Francisco.

    “There will not be one state of the pandemic. He said that there will be many states, for different populations and different areas. And that will continue to be so for the future.”