Tuvan Gumrukcu, Dominic Evans

KONYA, Turkey (Reuters – Turkish labourer Hasan Sarikaya said he is unable to find work, has no income and doesn’t see a way forward while President Tayyip Turkey – who he supports for so many years – continues in power.

Sarikaya is one of many in Turkey’s industrial heartlands that experienced an economic boom during the Erdogan years. However, Sarikaya was also hit hard by spiralling inflation and the collapse of the lira.

Erdogan could be in trouble if they suffer economic hardships that reduce support for Erdogan’s most popular modern politician in Turkey and make the next election in 2023 the hardest of Erdogan’s two decades at power.

“I am looking for work. I cannot pay my debts. There is no way out.” Sarikaya, 31, said this on a Konya street. I voted for Erdogan for many years… He won’t save himself.

Erdogan’s appeal to millions through his many victories in national and local elections was due to his record of economic growth, and his pious conservative beliefs. This inspired millions of Muslim Turks that had felt neglected by the secular elite.

Konya was the hometown of Rumi (a 13-century Sufi mystic poet) and has been a stronghold for his AK Party. He transformed it from an agricultural center into an industrial powerhouse.

Erdogan was elected president of Turkey with 75% support from Konya. AKP support in Turkey was greater than that in any of the 81 provinces. This dominance is being threatened by unprecedented challenges.

Other Konya residents, such as farmers, students and industrial workers spoke with Reuters and shared Sarikaya’s sadness over the rising cost of living and fewer job opportunities.

While many people said they would vote for Erdogan’s party in next year’s elections, surveys conducted over the last one-year suggest that Sarikaya’s disillusionment is part of a larger trend with the opposition parties moving ahead of both the AKP (and its parliamentary ally the MHP).

Sinan Ulgen (director at the Centre for Economics and Foreign Policy Studies in Istanbul) stated that “never has there been such low support for AKP” in the past. There is a greater perception that there will be political changes in 2023.

EVERYONE WINS

Since 2003, Erdogan has been Turkey’s president and prime minister. Erdogan assumed greater powers three years ago under the new executive presidency, which critics claim created an over-centralized system that is ill-equipped for dealing with Turkey’s political, economic and security problems.

In Ankara, power has been taken away from ministries and institutions to build the massive presidential palace. Erdogan dismissed three central bank governors in 2019 and fired three bank policymakers in October.

Erdogan claims that the central bank is independent but the central banking has complied to his request to lower interest rates below inflation. This resulted in a 56% drop in the Turkish lira and an increase of the living costs for Turks.

On a request from the president for information on Erdogan’s economic support, the presidency declined to comment.

Energised and motivated by the support of many, his opponents are now on the attack, accusing him to be driving Turkey into poverty.

Erdogan’s troubles are made worse by his own presidential system, which demands an absolute majority vote at the poll box. This denies candidates the possibility of forming alliances in order to cross the threshold.

According to polls, three possible rivals are the mayors in Istanbul and Ankara from the Republican People’s Party (CHP) and the leader the the nationalist IYI Party. They would each beat him in straight races.

Ulgen stated that it’s a “winner takes all” system, which raises risk when the political popularity of Ulgen is declining.

“A SULTAN in AUTUMN.”

Erdogan will face for the first time two independent parties founded by his AKP founding members.

Both are run by Ali Babacan (an ex-aligned ally of Erdogan), and the Gelecek (Future) Party. Each offers disenchanted AKP supporters the opportunity to reject Erdogan while not abandoning his conservative beliefs.

Hasan Ekici (local Gelecek Party Chairman in Konya) stated that voters will have to choose and be right-oriented if they do.

Although support in the country for these new parties is still low, it could be enough for Erdogan to win marginal shifts.

Soner Cagaptay (director of The Washington Institute for Near East Policy’s Turkish Research Program) stated that “Developments from 2018, when Turkey experienced its first economic crisis…all point to the fact Erdogan is an a Sultan in the autumn of His career.”

There has been concern about the health of the 67 year-old president, but this was rebuffed in the presidential palace. Erdogan is a charismatic orator known for his fiery speeches. However, Erdogan’s appearances have been inconsistent over the past year. He has often appeared pale and tired, sometimes walking awkwardly while dozing off in front of cameras.

A country in which half the population are aged 31 and younger, most people don’t know any other leader. Erdogan said that young Turks should be proud of their country’s progress, however he was unable to convince most youth.

Erdogan’s Party still has the most support and can count on almost universal support from media owned primarily by his supporters.

His reign saw a rise in health care and construction, while religious Turks were happy to see the lifting of restrictions regarding head scarves.

His opponents are not united on a common policy platform, and they have yet to choose a president candidate.

The uncertainty surrounding Erdogan’s prospects has spread to wider society, and Erdogan is making tentative efforts at repairing relations with Turkey’s allies.

Unal Cevikoz is a former ambassador who said that nations such as Egypt, Israel and others, which were long at odds, are not eager to give up on Erdogan.

He said, “People feel that the wind is blowing now and everyone is looking for a change at the government.”