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Explainer: From stability to turmoil

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO – A view of a burned car after protests against fuel price increases outside Almaty’s city administration headquarters, Kazakhstan. January 7, 2022. REUTERS/Stringer

(Reuters] Several hundred people died in Kazakhstan and hundreds were detained over the last week in violence which has been the worst since the country became independent in 1990.

On Friday, security forces seemed to have taken back control of the main streets of the country after Russian paratroopers had arrived on Thursday to quell the rebellion.

Below is a brief overview of Kazakhstan and its economy.

WHERE IS KAZAKHSTAN & WHY DOES IT MATTTER

Kazakhstan is located in Central Asia between Russia and China, and shares borders with three ex-Soviet republics. It has the richest hydrocarbon and metal reserves. Since 1991, Kazakhstan has received hundreds of billions in foreign investments.

It links strategically the rapidly growing markets of China, South Asia, Russia, and Europe via road, rail and at a port on Caspian Sea. The buckle of China’s massive ‘Belt and Road’ trade initiative, it has been described as such.

Kazakhstan is the world’s largest producer of uranium. This week’s turmoil prompted an 8 percent increase in the price for the fuel of nuclear power stations. The world’s 9th biggest oil exporter and 10th largest coal producer, Kazakhstan produced 85.7 millions tonnes in 2021.

This is second in bitcoin mining worldwide, after the United States. According to BTC.com, the “hashrate”, which is the amount of computing power used by machines connected to its network, dropped more than 10% Wednesday following the shutdown of Kazakhstan’s internet.

WHAT IS WRONG WITH PEOPLE?

Protests began in the oil-rich west against the lifting of New Year’s Day state price caps for propane and butane. These fuels are commonly referred to by their low cost as “road fuels” because they were inexpensive.

This reform was intended to ease oil shortages but quickly went awry as the prices nearly doubled. Protests spread quickly, tapping into wider discontent about endemic corruption in the state, income inequality, and economic hardships, all of which have been made worse by the coronavirus epidemic.

While Kazakhstan has the highest per capita income of all the Central Asian republics, over half the people live in isolated rural communities and have limited access to services.

Although the nation’s natural wealth has made some of its elite extremely wealthy, it is still a country where many Kazakhs are feeling left behind. Around a million Kazakhs, out of the total 19 million population, live below poverty lines.

The annual inflation rate is close to 9%. This level of inflation has been at its highest for more than five decades. It prompts the central bank’s decision to raise interest rates to 9.75%.

WHO IS RESPONSIBLE FOR MANAGEMENT?

Kassym Jomart Tokayev is a career diplomat and was elected as president on the promise to carry out his pro-business predecessor Nursultan Nagabayev. Nazarbayev was a Soviet Politburo former member and led Kazakhstan for almost three decades. He is widely considered the true power behind the throne.

Tokayev, an 81-year old former president who was once chief of the Security Council, has fired Tokayev using protests that sometimes hit symbols from the Nazarbayev era like statues.

Since the events, Nazarbayev and his family have not made any public statements or appeared. It is unclear in what ways the rising uprising will affect the substantial influence they continue to hold in politics and business.

Tokayev also fired Samat Abish (Nazarbayev’s nephew) as the second-in command of security police. Dariga Nazarbayev, the eldest daughter of Nazarbayev, was a former senator and is still a lawmaker. He has often been mentioned as a potential future president.

ECONOMIC PROSPECTS

Kazakhstan’s per capita gross domestic product in 2020 was $9,122, World Bank data show, slightly above that of Turkey and Mexico but below its annual peak of nearly $14,000 in 2013.

Tokayev’s government created a stimulus package of 6% to aid small and medium-sized companies in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The World Bank predicts economic growth at 3.5% by 2021 and 3.7% next year. In 2023, it will forecast 4.8%. It urged Kazakhstan not to allow large-state owned enterprises to dominate the economy and encourage competition.

HUMANITARIAN RIGHTS and FREEDOMS

Western countries and rights organizations have criticised Kazakhstan’s authoritarian political system and intolerance for dissent. But, Kazakhstan is also seen as more volatile and less restrictive than its ex-Soviet neighbor.

Amnesty International stated that this week’s demonstrations resulted from the authorities’ “widespread suppression of basic human rights”. It called for all arbitrarily held persons to be released and an investigation into past state abuses.

Marie Struthers (Amnesty Director for Eastern Europe & Central Asia), stated that the government had persecuted peaceful protesters in Kazakhstan for years.

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