Europe has faced such ugly moments too often before, where matters of life and death – and of war and peace — depended on the balance of power and test of wills between despots and more benevolent forces.

It was intended to change that history, and bring in an era that President George H.W. Bush would be proud of. Bush 1989 hoped would bringA Europe that is “whole and free”, in which Russia can find its proper and peaceful home.  

“For forty years the seeds of democracy in Eastern Europe were dormant. They lay buried beneath the cold tundra of Cold War.” saidOn May 31, 1989 in Mainz (Germany), President Bush was there six months prior to the fall of the Berlin Wall and over two years before Soviet collapse. “And decade after decade, time after time, the flowering of the human spirit withered from the chill of conflict and oppression … the world has waited long enough. It is now. Let Europe become whole and free.  

This is the context in which U.S. President Joe Biden confronts this week a moment for truth about the last embers and signature foreign policy initiative of the presidency. Biden has rallied allies in support of the systemic contest between democracy and Chinese or Russian autocracy, which he said would define 21.^{It is possible to} century.  

Russian President Vladimir Putin is known for his signature ambition to reverse the disintegration of the Soviet Union as well as the expansion of NATO within Russia’s borders. he famously calledThe greatest geopolitical disaster of (20)^Th) century.” He seems determined to continue his legacy at 70 years old, just like the Russian czars before him.

The week starts with Monday bilateral U.S.-Russian meeting in GenevaThis conversation starts with an introduction Sunday evening and moves to the Russian NATO Council in Brussels on Wednesday. Then it goes on to Vienna, where the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OCCSE) will conclude on Thursday.

Russians are the reason for all of these crisis meetings security demands delivered in mid-December in the form of two draft treaties. The treaties would have prohibited Ukraine from joining NATO. It also required the alliance’s withdrawal of forces stationed within member states in Central or Eastern Europe, as well as a cessation of all military exercises. That was followed a few days later by brash Putin brinksmanship in the form of an ultimatum – backed by some 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s borders – that he would take “military-technicalIf you are not satisfied, take action.

Thus far, the U.S. and its allies have answered his escalation through the carrot of reciprocal talks on some aspects in the treaties – including allowable missile systems and military maneuvers – and through the stick of punishing, new financial, military and technology sanctions should Russia invade Ukraine.

U.S. officials told The New York TimesThe plans included “cutting off Russia’s largest financial institutions from international transactions; imposing an Embargo on American made or American designed technology required for defense-related industry industries; and arming insurgents within Ukraine that would wage what would be a guerrilla battle against a Russian military occupier, if that happens.” 

This week, America and its allies will likely know whether Putin wants to negotiate or escalate by this weekend.

This past week was a reminder of how fluid the situation is swift, Russian-led military interventionKazakhstan President Kassym Jomart Tokayev requested this. This was allegedly to quell protests by large numbers against the Jan. 2 fuel price rise.

It would be foolish to try and separate Putin’s efforts in Kazakhstan from his plans for Ukraine. These two are interconnected according to Putin’s calculation.

When the dust settles, Kazakhstan is likely to land deeper in Moscow’s expanding sphere of influence than at any time since it broke from the Soviet Union in 1991 – complete with its energy and mineral riches, which include 40% of the world’s uranium reserves.

While the current situation remains unclear and it is difficult to find reliable information, one thing is certain: Russia’s swift intervention and timing underscore Putin’s desire to seize strategic opportunities within the Soviet Union. It is the fourth time in just two years that Moscow has intervened in neighboring states that had been tilting toward the West – Armenia, Belarus, and Ukraine as the other three.

Rumors are rifeThere are many theories in Kazakhstan about Russia’s involvement in the events of this week. They range from the possibility it was an organized coup by Russia from the start to the fact that Putin took advantage of the opportunity.

The fact that Kazakh President Tokayev was in crisis and with his leadership at stake, made it clear that he turned to Putin to secure his political survival. That is likely to bring lasting change to a country – and perhaps to other parts of Central Asia — that had benefited from balancing relations with Moscow, Beijing, and Washington.

Moscow supports Tokayev issued shoot-to-kill ordersProtesters were defeated and Nursultan Nazabayev was ousted, 81. He is his erstwhile benefactor and country’s first President, who also heads Kazakhstan’s powerful Security Council. He was also ousted and arrestedKarim Masimov was charged with treason by his intelligence chief.  

Russian troops are now on the groundProtecting the nation’s key airports and military facilities, along with other soldiers from the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), which is made up six countries from the former Soviet Union in the first military intervention of its kind since 1992.

Tony Blinken, U.S. secretary of state said this weekAccording to “One lesson from recent history”: Once Russians have entered your home, sometimes it can be very hard to convince them to go.

The following is the Kazakh message to U.S. diplomats negotiating with Russians this week: Whatever you hope to negotiate, recognize that Putin is playing for keeps, believes he has the initiative, is willing to take risks, is prepared to send in troops, and sees the Biden administration – particularly following the Afghanistan debacle — and its partners as weak, divided, and indecisive.

These are the least probable scenarios, such as Putin withdrawing from NATO’s demands or invading Ukraine. Watch instead for something murkier and craftier that would be designed to divide allies – the taking of additional swatches of Ukrainian territory, the annexation of Luhansk of Donbass provinces, where Russian separatists dominate, or the stirring up of internal Ukrainian dramas with a hidden hand.

It is now up to the United States and its allies whether they can achieve both peace and war. Europe’s future lies in balance again.

—Frederick Kempe is the President and Chief Executive Officer of the Atlantic Council.