China’s zero-Covid policy prolongs supply chain disruptions
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According to Moody’s Analytics, supply chain disruptions continue due in large part to China’s zero-Covid policy.
The bottlenecks have lasted for about a year now but are expected to “materially ease in the early months of this year,” said Katrina Ell, a senior economist for Asia-Pacific at Moody’s Analytics.
So we’d see material downward pressure on prices such as producer and input prices. But given China’s zero-Covid policy and how they tend to shut down important ports and factories — that really increases disruption,” she told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Friday, adding it amplifies ongoing supply chain pressures.
Beijing has placed a strict zero-Covid policyThe pandemic started in the early 2020s. It entails strict quarantines and travel restrictions — whether within a city or with other countries — to control outbreaks.
Manufacturing and shipping activities around the world have suffered from restrictions to contain Covid-19, thereby accelerating the supply chain crisis. The shipping industry is being harmed by the highly infectious omicron variant.
China’s zero Covid China policy is “really increasing the downside risk for material improvement of supply chains,” Ell observed, pointing out that it will have “important implications for inflation as well as central bank policy making in the next few months.”
This is particularly true considering Beijing’s economic importance and weight on the international stage.
China is the second most populous country in the world, and was ranked 2nd last year shut down a key terminal at its Ningbo-Zhoushan port — the third busiest port in the world. After one worker had been infected with Covid, it was the second time that the country had to suspend operations at one its most important ports.
Dienstag, Goldman Sachs cut its 2022 forecast for ChinaEconomic growth was 4.3%, compared to previously 4.8%. Based on the expectation that China might increase business restrictions to limit this omicron variant, U.S. Investment Bank’s analysis.
Ell stated that “the zero-Covid policy makes the recovery a little more difficult, especially on the consumption side.” Ell added that this also includes any monetary policy movements such as continuous liquidity injections or potential rate reductions.
There are many levers already in use that will be used to improve domestic demand. To ensure the government doesn’t lose sight of its goal to achieve stable growth in this year’s economic challenges, she added.
— CNBC’s Weizhen Tan and Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.
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