Strategist David Roche warns of a ‘turning point’ toward a bear market
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David Roche, a veteran strategist warned that recent volatility may be indicative of a bear market rather than temporary speed bumps in an ongoing bull run.
Roche, President and Global Strategist at Independent Strategy said Monday that “What we are seeing isn’t a minor interruption to a bull market, but possibly a turning point toward a bear market.”
He explained that “all the good factors” that drove economies during the pandemic — such as government financing of both household and corporate balance sheets — are set to be “slowly withdrawn.”
Morgan Stanley’s former global strategist, head of research, said that while there are disruptions to the supply sides in the labor market, this means that workers incomes will not replace money previously received from public authorities.
“So, because this is so important with what drove financial markets — excess money chasing insufficient assets — I would say we’re about a quarter of the way through the education of the punters,” Roche said.
“There is practically nobody in the business left except me — which tells you about my age — there’s nobody left who actually remembers what a bear market is really like,” he warned. People only recall buying on dips. They also remember that central banks reacted quickly to any fall in the market and reversed their policy if necessary.
Wild January Stocks
This long-standing strategist made these comments after an unusual January in global markets. Investors had to grapple with many issues, including major central banks such as the U.S. Federal ReservePossible tightening of monetary policy due to geopolitical tensions between Russia, the West and Ukraine. Also, concerns about inflation.
Asia saw markets in Japan, Shenzhen on mainland China and Japan in correction territory at the beginning of January. The benchmark was set in Hong Kong. Hang Seng indexThis location is in bear market territory. Markets are closed to the public for Lunar New Year.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite posted their worst months since the onset of the pandemic. European stocks, however, also experienced their. worst month since October 2020 in January.
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