Analysts of cryptocurrency are an opinionated and quirky bunch. An article two weeks ago published on Insider.com — formerly Business Insider — cited the following price predictions from investment banking analysts: Goldman Sachs (NYSE:) forecast BTC would reach $100,000 in 2022; JPMorgan (NYSE:) had it at $148,000 last November but slashed it to $38,000 last month; while Citigroup (NYSE: ) Projected that it would be $318,000 in Dec 2021. This target has not been revised.

Ardent crypto bull and fund manager of ARK Investment Management, Cathie Wood, has said numerous times that a $100,000 Bitcoin is possible in 2022 citing the fact that Bitcoin’s settlement volume has surpassed Mastercard (NYSE:). She further adds that recent network upgrades and increasing use of the payment app Lightning Network on Bitcoin’s blockchain are driving its scale and utility. Wood projects that a Bitcoin’s value could reach $500,000 in 2026, and then $1,000,000 by 2030.

While on the flipside of that Bitcoin hype, you have staunch crypto critic Peter Schiff who claims that his analysis of the technical price charts suggest Bitcoin has experienced a “double top” pattern. A “double top” is a pricing pattern over time that tends to be bearish if a key support threshold is breached. Schiff asserts that Bitcoin will crash to $10,000 if it falls below the current $30,000 threshold.

Another Bitcoin tracker, despite the large prediction swings of the previous analysts, said that there were two things that will ultimately drive the Bitcoin price towards his $200,000. Tom Lee (Co-founder, Fundstrat Global Advisor) stated Monday that two key factors are needed to achieve his $200,000. target price. He spoke on CNBC Crypto World. These include current investors moving to crypto, and regulators taking action to regulate the digital asset industry.

It is possible to make a huge step in crypto by getting existing U.S. investors, not new ones, to give Bitcoin to them. People over 65 control 76% of America’s wealth. It’s almost $100 trillion that is held by people who believe Bitcoin is something they do for fun or that are just there to have fun with. Regulating Bitcoin could help to unlock some of this movement. If you were to allocate 2% of $100 trillion for crypto, it would lead to an increase of five to 10 or 15 times in the total value of your network.
While a $200,000 Bitcoin this year would be great, it’s unlikely to occur. Crypto regulation won’t be an issue of priority before Congress goes on summer recess. This is due to the dysfunctional nature of Congress. Also, there does not appear to be a catalyst to trigger a 2% investment transfer from baby boomers’ retirement accounts into crypto.

Although no one can know the future, it is known that Bitcoin has provided annualized returns exceeding 230% over the last 10 years. While it’s likely not in the cards that Bitcoin will hit $200,000 this year, it would be a stretch to even reach $100,000 if macroeconomic conditions become unstable. However, given the strong deflationary nature of Bitcoin and underlying fundamentals, it’s possible for Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high in the ballpark of $75,000 to $90,000.

These opinions are not meant to be considered as financial advice. Investors should conduct their own research.

Bitcoin holdings are held by the author.

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