Six charts to know in financial markets -Breaking
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© Reuters. First responders and Ukrainian soldiers stand beside a vehicle that was damaged during fighting against Russian troops. This happened after Russia launched an extensive military operation against Ukraine in Kyiv (Ukraine), February 26, 2022. REUTERS/Valentyn OgirenkoLONDON (Reuters – Russia attacked Ukraine full-scale this week. It sparked a rash of financial market turmoil and sanctions.
Below you will find six charts that illustrate the most dramatic financial market moves of this week.
ENERGY SUGAR
The war in Ukraine caused fears about a disruption to oil markets and saw crude oil prices rise above $100 per barrel. They also reached $105, the highest level since 2014. [O/R]The UK and Dutch gas prices increased by approximately 40% to 50% on Thursday. Markets remain nervous despite the fact that both crude oil and natural gas prices fell on Friday. [NG/EU]
Although Russia has been spared harsh sanctions by the West, it was still unable to impose severe sanctions on Russia. However, Russian oil buyers were struggling to find shippers to transport crude oil from Russia and secure bank guarantees.
Russia is the second largest crude oil producer in the world, and supplies around 35% and 50% respectively of Europe and Germany.
(Graphic: Oil and gas prices jump – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xmpjoelrbvr/Gas%20and%20brent%20prices%20jump.PNG)
INFLATION FEARS
Inflation-linked bonds, securities that have payouts that rise with inflation, were a hot commodity as a result of rising energy prices.
Real yields (borrowing costs adjusted for inflation) have been sharply reduced, while breakevens (indicating the market’s future inflation expectations), rose sharply.
This implies that the central banks might have to slow down than previously forecasted in order to combat inflation and economic growth.
Rate-sensitive Treasury Inflation Protected Securities, (TIPS), saw yields fall while breakevens rose to 3% over the past week. Germany was vulnerable to rising European gas prices. Two-year real yields dropped around 30bps while breakevens rose towards 3%. BofA data indicates that net inflows from TIPS funds reached 3.7% for the first week in five weeks.
(Graphic: Breakevens – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gdvzybwmgpw/Pasted%20image%201645818345907.png)
Stock Markets: Beware of the Bear
The market crash on Thursday wiped out nearly $1 trillion in global stock markets’ value and intensified a fall in key indexes. This is because investors are starting to worry about the impact of central bank rate rises.
U.S. Nasdaq, which is tech-heavy, flirted briefly with bear market territory. Although a 20% decline from the peak was known, U.S. Markets ended up closing higher, despite other damage and gained more ground on Friday.
Europe’s recent decline of 3.3% in the made it pass 10%. But, on Friday, it bounced back just as strongly.
MSCI’s 24-country emerging markets index did however earn its “bear market” tag with a 4.3% decline on Thursday that saw it drop just slightly over 20% from the record level almost exactly a full year ago.
(Graphic: Major equity indexes in correction territory – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gkplgawxovb/indices.JPG)
RUSSIAN ROUT
Russia’s stock exchange was the worst hit on Thursday. Moscow’s MOEX stock exchange plunged 33%, having dropped more than 1000 points in one moment as traders feared stiff sanctions. The MSCI Russia index fell 38%. According to analysts, it was among the worst three stock market crashes in history.
(Graphic: Russian stock market plunging far more than during other crises – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/xmvjoekmepr/Pasted%20image%201645779548050.png)
UKRAINE DAIN
Ukraine also suffered. Investors were left wondering if the country could avoid another sovereign default after its currency and government bonds collapsed.
(Graphic: Ukraine bonds drop – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/gkplgaxdavb/Pasted%20image%201645805780289.png)
SOARING WHEAT & GRAINS
The conflict between Russia (the world’s largest exporter) and Ukraine resulted in wheat prices reaching their highest point since mid 2008, as the markets attempted to predict the impact on oil and grain supplies.
Price pressures and food inflation will rise as the Black Sea region’s supply is disrupted. These are all important concerns at a time in which affordability is an issue due to economic damages caused by COVID-19.
The Ukrainian military suspended shipping to its ports Thursday after Russian forces entered the country. Russia had earlier closed the Azov Sea to commercial vessel movement until further notice. However, it kept Russian ports open in the Black Sea for navigation.
(Graphic: Ukraine crisis send wheat prices soaring – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/egpbkqmayvq/Soaring%20food%20prices%20Russia%20Ukraine.PNG)
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