Jonathan Spicer, Tuvan Gumrukcu

ANKARA, Reuters – Turkey’s commitment to prevent some Russian warships crossing its waters into the Black Sea while the Ukraine crisis is raging could aid in repairing its ties with NATO. But it also faces reprisals from Moscow.

Ankara is likely to be challenged by the arrival of Russian ships on the route, which will prove to be a test for its resolve in the days ahead. It also shows how determined it can go to balance the delicate diplomatic relationship between the east and the west.

Turkey has changed its language to label Moscow’s aggression on Ukraine “war” Sunday. This move would permit Ankara access to parts of an International Pact to stop some Russian warships transiting from the Mediterranean to Black Sea.

This could limit Moscow’s ability attack Ukraine’s Black Sea Coast with its navy force. However, it all depends upon the details of the 1936 Montreux Convention.

This pact will allow Turkey to limit its naval transit via the Bosphorus Straits and Dardanelles during wartime, but also includes a clause that allows ships to return home to their registered base.

According to Yoruk Isik (an Istanbul-based geopolitical analyst, and chief of the Bosphorus Observer consulting), at least four Russian vessels are still waiting for Turkey’s decision on crossing from the Mediterranean.

According to Isik, a top Turkish official and another one of their ships, a frigate as well as a destroyer have asked for permission to travel as early as next week. They could all claim the Black Sea for their base, which would leave Turkey with some flexibility.

Isik stated to Reuters, “Calling it a war’ is a very large step.” Ankara was reluctant to do this and the language gives Moscow one last chance of stopping aggression in Ukrainian cities.

HIGH Stakes

NATO member Turkey, which shares maritime borders with Russia and has good relations with Ukraine, is in a high-stakes situation.

An unwavering shift toward the West might help NATO’s standing after Turkey’s 2019 purchase Russian S-400 rockets has soured relations. This had also triggered U.S. sanction.

However, any move too far could cause damage to Turkey’s economy already in crisis after the December currency crisis and an inflation spiral.

Russians import 45% of Turkish goods, and Russians provide 20% of Turkey’s tourist revenue.

GlobalSource Partners, Atilla Yesilada said that Turkey’s shifting position on the conflict would “almost certainly draw the Russian fury” and that sanctions against Turkish agricultural exports to Syria or provocations in Syria will be imposed.

An unnamed official who was familiar with the situation said that Turkey’s government would take measures to improve the economy as the fallout from conflict is becoming “more severe” each day. As the Russians declared an “extraordinary operation”, the lira plunged to 5% for a brief time last week.

Nevertheless, Turkey’s political leaders have kept their rhetoric moderate.

Tayyip Turkey has criticized the Western approach towards Moscow, including sanctions. However, Erdogan also took a strong tone against Russia and called the invasion “unacceptable”.

Ankara and Russia have been in close contact on defense and energy, but Ankara sold Ukraine drones, and signed a co-producer agreement, which angered Moscow.

Mevlut Cavasoglu, foreign minister, made appeals to Russian and Ukrainian counterparts to reach a ceasefire. Erdogan agreed to host the negotiations.

Cavusoglu stated that vessels returning to Black Sea base will be allowed passage, and each case will be evaluated.

He added that everything should be transparent when it comes to the establishment of ships’ home stations.