Frustrated Putin may order escalation of violence in Ukraine, U.S. officials say
[ad_1]
U.S intelligence agencies determined that Russian President Vladimir Putin may be growing frustrated with his military efforts in Ukraine and could see this as his last resort. doubling down on violenceNBC News has been briefed by former and current U.S. officials.
As Russia’s economy struggles under unimaginable global sanctions, and as his purportedly superior army force continues to wreak havoc appears bogged downAccording to sources, Putin is adamant about his anger towards underlings. However, he has remained largely removed from the Kremlin because of concerns over Covid.
On MSNBC, Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), the Chairman of the Senate Intelligence Committee stated, “This is someone that has clearly been caught off guard due to the size of Ukraine’s resistance.” “He has isolated himself, he’s not been in the Kremlin very much… You’ve got less and less inputs and these inputs are from sycophants.”
He said, “I worry that he has been forced into a corner.” It is not obvious that there is an exit ramp.
A number of former and present officials stated that the Russian intelligence agencies in Western countries have good information about him right now. They are monitoring his behavior for signs of behavioral change and keeping an eye on any such changes. While four American officials denied that there is intelligence suggesting that the Russian leader may be mentally unstable, they said the pattern of his behavior has changed from previous years.
According to two former and current U.S. officials, the U.S. intelligence has strong intelligence that Putin is dissatisfied and expressing uncommon bursts at his closest circle members over the status of the military operation so far. This is despite the international condemnation.
They claim that this is unusual because Putin, an ex-intelligence officer from Russia, tends to keep his emotions under control.
John Brennan, ex-CIA Director, said that he is “not the same cold-blooded dictator that he used to be in 2008” and spoke out for NBC News.
According to a diplomat from the West, Russia’s president seemed more isolated and uninformed.
The main worry is his access to information and the isolation he experiences. The isolation is a really big concern,” the diplomat told NBC News. We don’t think he is able to grasp the reality of the situation.
On Twitter, Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who is the ranking member on the intelligence committee, stated that “…”the old Putin was a cold blooded but calculating killer. Putin’s new version is more dangerous.
Warner, who receives special briefings by the CIA like Rubio said he remains concerned about a large cyberattack on Ukraine. This is something that the Russians are not willing to or able do yet.
Rubio, using harsh language on Twitter, also voiced his concern.
Rubio, “DANGER” tweeted. “#Putin is a powerful leader that restored Russia to the superpower status it was after the terrible events of the 90’s. This image has given him legitimacy. Now the economy is in shambles & the military is being humiliated & his only tools to reestablish power balance with the West is cyber & nukes.”
Brennan stated that he also shared these worries. Brennan indicated that, based upon the publication of precise intelligence about Putin’s pre-invasion movements, he believes U.S.- and Western intelligence agencies possess good insights into Putin’s decision-making processes.
Brennan stated that Putin made a terrible, poor mistake. This is the first time he’s faced such a situation before. I’m sure he’s lashing out at advisers, ministers, and others — there may be an emotional spiral here. His injuries include two blackened eyes, bloody nose and several punches. His options are limited and he is now being left behind on both the battlefield and in the financial arena.
The spokesperson of the National Security Council refused to comment.
According to Michael Kofman (an analyst at CNA think tank), Russian forces have so far not used the same concentrated artillery or bombing campaign that they did in past military operations. Kofman tweeted that Russia’s military has “an artillery Army first” and only has used about a third of the available fires so far in this war.
He said, “Sadly, the worst is still ahead. And this war could turn out to be a lot more ugly.”
Condoleezza Rice met with Putin several times as secretary of states in the George W. Bush government. She stated on Fox News Sunday, that she also sees a new Putin.
She said that he was always “calculated and cold” as a former KGB agent, but now he “seems erratic.” It is a delusional, ever-deepening rendering of history. This was always a victimology of the events that had occurred to them. But now, we are back at blaming Lenin, for the founding of Kyiv, Ukraine. He’s now seeing something I haven’t ever seen.
Senator Jeanne Shaheen (D-N.H.), a member the Foreign Relations Committee said that Putin’s “serious miscalculations will cost him a grave penalty” and that he had “become a political pariah for those he foolishly believed would back his premeditated, unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.”
A U.S. defense representative told NBC News that the Russian military had not been able yet to attain air superiority over Ukraine and that the Ukrainian military still maintains significant missile and air defense systems. This was the fifth day of the invasion. Most analysts believed the Russians would quickly overthrow Ukraine’s ageing air defense system.
However, officials stated that Russia’s efforts have been complicated by the large number of Ukrainian portable air defense missiles. This includes Stinger missiles with shoulder fire, acquired from Baltic countries.
Numerous reports claimed that Ukraine used its fleet of Turkish drones against Russian aircraft on the ground. Azerbaijan used small drones to strike targets with missiles and hover above them in the conflict with Armenia in 2020.
According to the defense official, Russian intruders are having trouble maintaining fuel stocks and other supplies. This is why their main offensive on Kyiv has stalled. Official said that the Russians had advanced just three miles within 24 hour and they were about 15.5 miles away from central Kyiv.
Putin misunderstood Ukraine’s will and failed to count on the West to provide a strong, united response, stated Alexander Vershbow. Vershbow was a former Ambassador to Russia and was also the former deputy Secretary General of NATO between 2012 and 2016.
Vershbow declared, “It’s certainly not a failed invasion but definitely a faltering,”
Ex-intelligence officials and experts from the United States said that Putin’s options remain unattractive because of Russian efforts to expand into Ukraine, despite a stubborn resistance and Russia’s economic woes.
Putin could give his military orders to use brute power to take Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. He also allowed the army to bomb civilian areas and use indiscriminate shelling. Russia used this approach to support Iranian-backed rebels in Syria and the regime troops in Syria in its 1999-2000 Second Chechen War.
Several thousand Chechen civilians died when Russian troops occupied Grozny, the capital of Chechnya. Human rights organizations in Syria and Chechnya accused Russia of targeting civilians and war crimes.
Putin championed Chechnya’s war and was elected president of Russia in 2000.
Vershbow now works as a respected fellow with the Atlantic Council. Vershbow said, “The next step may be scorched earth tactics like we saw in Chechnya, Syria,” which could mean even more destruction and death. I don’t believe they are too squeamish when it comes down to this.
Rubio posted Monday on Twitter that “growing signs” were present #Putin has ordered a medieval siege of #Kyiv“, which would mean cutting out food, fuel, and power.
“We need to start thinking about what we can & are willing to do to prevent such a barbaric crime,” he added.
[ad_2]
