Forecasters predict that the U.S. economy will slow down and experience higher inflation. Europe will be in recession, while Russia’s will plummet to double-digit levels. This is the first attempt at measuring the economic effect of the invasion by Ukraine.

The CNBC Rapid UpdateThe median of 14 U.S. forecasts sees GDP increasing by 3.2% this fiscal year. This marks a 0.3% decline from the February forecast. However, it is still in line with the current trend as the US recovers from the Omicron slowdown. This year’s Fed preferred indicator of inflation for personal consumption, which is 0.7 percentage points higher that the February survey, sees it rising to 4.3%.

However, forecasters warned that there is still much to be known about the U.S.’s response to an oil shock, which has seen crude prices rise quickly. above $126 a barrelThe national average gasoline price over $4 per gallon. The majority of forecasters see the risks associated with higher inflation and slower growth.

According to economists, a total withdrawal of Russian oil supply from the global market could have a more serious outcome.

“…The consequences of a complete shut-off of Russia’s 4.3 (million barrels per day) of oil exports to the US and Europe would be dramatic,” JPMorgan wrote over the weekend. “To the extent that this disengagement gathers steam, the size and length of the disruption — and thus the shock to global growth— will build.”

CNBC Rapid Update indicates that the U.S. has experienced a 3.5% increase in growth in the second quarter, compared to 1.9% the previous quarter. The second quarter estimate, however, is down 0.8 percent from the last survey. Although the economy seems to have recovered from the Omicron Wave, it’s not as robust as when inflation took a larger bite.

For this quarter, inflation estimates are higher at 1.7 percent and lower for the next. The expected decline in inflation is from 4.3% to 2.4% this year, to be around 2.4% at year’s end.

The U.S. economy is experiencing sustained growth.

According to Stephen Stanley of Amherst Pierpont, “Energy costs are rising, and may continue higher indefinitely,” said the economist. Consumers are blessed with massive liquidity and income growth.

This price shock is unique because of the amount of oil produced by the United States. U.S. demand and production are in rough balance. Money is moved from U.S. consumers to U.S. producers, not from U.S. citizens to foreigners. While this will affect certain American regions and families more, it could also increase the profit margins of U.S. oil companies.

In turn, oil companies are likely to encourage growth through increased drilling and profits.

Some are still pessimistic about the impact of higher prices on U.S. economic growth. Joseph Lavorgna, of Natixis, stated that the US could be facing a crisis of inflation. “America is at risk of falling into recession, and food and energy prices may rise significantly more,” he said.