Putin always wanted to weaken West. He’s done the opposite
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Russian President Vladimir Putin watches his wrist before a press conference held in Moscow, Russia with French President Emmanuel Macron. This was on February 7, 2022.
Thibault Camus, Reuters| Reuters
What have we learned? President Vladimir PutinOver the past 22 years, he has tried repeatedly to undermine and weaken the West over and again.
However, he appears to have done the exact opposite with his invasion of Ukraine. He managed to unify most of the international community against Russia’s aggression towards its neighbour.
“NATO is united — more so than at any point since the Soviet collapse — with a renewed sense of purpose and mission,” Ian Bemmer, president of political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, commented this week.
Bremmer, in email comments, said that “So also is the European Union”: Germany is in favor of ending Russia’s economic dependency and has nearly doubled their defense budget; France is in board. Bremmer added, “even Moscow-tilting Hungary had condemned the invasion, supported crippling sanctions and was allowing in hundreds and thousands of Ukrainian refugees,” on Monday.
Russia is viewed as a “malign actor” by the West, who has become accustomed to it being on the international stage. interference in democratic processesLike its interference in the 2016 U.S. election, support for far right political groups in Europe or oversight of state-sponsored hackattacks weaponizing energy supplies with recent gas price risesIt is also found in Europe. This was widely believed to be responsible for. a nerve agent attack on U.K. soil in 2018 and was subsequently sanctioned. Putin was later accused of ordering an attack with nerve agents on Alexei Navalny in 2020. Both attacks were denied by Russia despite abundant evidence.
Russia’s incursion into Ukraine, despite its history of misbehavior and geopolitical meddling should not be surprising, especially considering the annexation in 2014 of Crimea and overt efforts to influence political decisions of former Soviet countries like Belarus and Georgia.
The West was accused of being too tough on Moscow despite imposing sanctions against Russia in response to Crimea’s annexed. Analysts claim that Putin had learned from Crimea the ability to invade sovereign states and then annex them, and then get away with it.
Now, however, the West appears more united now than ever before, after Russia invaded the Ukraine’s north, east, and south on February 24th. As nations come together to defeat Russia, recent divisions within NATO, EU and other countries are dissipating quickly.
The world is “pulling together”
The global diplomatic circuits were busy over the past months because officials generally feared Russia was preparing for an attack on Ukraine. However, many analysts weren’t expecting such a large-scale invasion to occur.
Since the invasion, there has been a further flurry of high-profile and urgent meetings, visits and video calls between the leaders of NATO countries with previous disagreements between members of the alliance — on a range of matters from defense spending to refugees, Brexit and energy security — put on the backburner.
During a protest in support of Ukraine, a sign for United Against Putin was held by a man outside Washington’s White House.
Stefani Reynolds | AFP | Getty Images
Numerous public demonstrations against Putin and the war in Ukraine have taken place around the world. It has been accompanied by the withdrawal of many famous brands from Russia. This made Russia an international pariah.
“Putin’s brutal invasion of Ukraine is reshaping the politics of Europe and – possibly – beyond,” Berenberg Bank’s Chief Economist Holger Schmieding noted in his latest report assessing the macro impact of the conflict. He said, “The world is coming together in a way that has never been seen”
Schmieding observed that Russia began to show some characteristics “of a Soviet-style Petro-Economy with an oversized military sector and eventually unaffordable Imperial Ambitions” even before the war. Russia seemed to be on the verge of falling behind the advanced nations.
Schmieding pointed out that Russia’s rising war costs, increased internal repression, and harsh Western sanctions will likely accelerate the economic collapse of Putin’s Russia more rapidly than what the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan did to the loss of Soviet power.
NATO strengthened
While Putin seems increasingly isolated and unable to communicate with the West, Western democracies have to balance their support of Ukraine with not being perceived as intervening militarily. A move like this could quickly spark an even more devastating global conflict.
In his State of the Union address last week, President Joe Biden commented on the West’s cohesion in the crisis, saying “we see the unity among leaders of nations and a more unified Europe, a more unified West” adding that “in the battle between democracy and autocracy, democracies are rising to the moment.”
Although democracies may be growing in the West at the moment, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has created a dilemma for NATO and EU morally and militaryly.
Although Ukraine isn’t a member either of these blocs, its location on the edges of Europe and as a buffer between NATO countries and Russia puts it in a strategic position. The pro-Western, pro-democracy, populace and government of Ukraine have sparked widespread support for the country and its people. While hundreds of thousands have fled war, many more have remained to fight and have gained greater global respect for Ukraine.
Ironically, Putin’s invasion — largely predicated on the demand that Ukraine is never allowed to join NATO — has inadvertently boosted the case for joining the military allianceThe public sentiment in Finland and Sweden is shifting towards joining the organization.
NATO has already bolstered its presence in Eastern Europe and Baltic countries with additional troops and weapons, strengthening an alliance Putin had hoped to diminish.
Russia’s invasion also caused tardy defense spending, specifically in Germany. to pledge a massive boost in defense spending and infrastructureThis has helped Europe to decouple from Russia on energy, too. The EU received 41% of its natural gasoline from Russia and 27% from its crude oil. according to 2019 dataYou are looking for diversification, fast.
China too is concerned
Despite China offering to facilitate peace talks and holding a conference call with France’s and Germany’s leaders Tuesday, the Kremlin still needs to be negotiated with. This is despite Xi Jinping’s pledge to deepen strategic cooperation with Moscow.
Bill Burns, CIA director, stated that Putin committed fundamental errors by entering Ukraine believing it would be weak. Also underestimating the opposition Russian forces will face.
Burns stated that Putin believed that he “sanction-proofed the economy” and that he had modernized his military so that they could “of a decisive win at minimum cost.”
Burns stated Tuesday that he was proven wrong in every instance.
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