Robin Emmott and Sabine Siebold

ABOVE THE SUPPLY SHIP ELBE, Latvia (Reuters ) – German naval Commander Terje Schmitt–Eliassen was notified by the Soviet Republic of Latvia that five of his warships would be sailing to the country to assist in protecting the eastern flank of NATO.

Germany was trying to protect an area that military strategists had long considered the most vulnerable for its alliance, and this hasty dispatch came as part of their scramble to send everything that could swim out to sea. NATO and Germany were propelled into new realities by Russia’s invasion. They now face what diplomats, intelligence officers and security sources all agree to be the greatest threat to their collective security since the Cold War.

Schmitt-Eliassen speaks to Reuters at Elbe, a German Baltic port. It was moored right next to the ship within view of Riga’s church towers. Later, vessels and sailors representing countries such as Estonia, Denmark and Belgium joined the group.

The next days will see the start of a mine clearing operation by 12 NATO warships and 600 crew members.

When intelligence indicated an imminent invasion, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg declared the present era “new normal”.

This looks very much like a return back to the past. NATO was founded in 1949 in defense of the Soviet threat. It is now facing mechanised warfare, increased defence spending and a possible new Iron Curtain across Europe. NATO has returned to its former nemesis, defending itself against the Soviet threat, after struggling for a post-Cold War role.

There is a big difference. China split from the Soviet Union during Cold War. It has refused to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Moscow describes it as “special military operations.” And the old Cold War blueprints no longer work, as NATO has expanded east since the 1990s, bringing in former Soviet states – including the Baltic states of Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia in 2004.

China and Russia released a strong joint statement in February rejecting NATO expansion in Europe, and challenging the Western-led international system.

An international conflict could be triggered by direct confrontations between NATO and Russia.

Hans-Lothar Domroese (retired German general) said that “we have reached a turning moment”. He was the commander of one of the most powerful NATO commands in Brunssum, Netherlands from 2016 to 2016.

We have China and Russia working together now to challenge the United States’ global leadership. Deterrence has been a key element of our past success. The question is: Does deterrence suffice?

This is underscored by Schmitt-Eliassen’s mission – a regular exercise that was brought forward by Russia’s invasion.

Access is what matters. NATO could have attempted to block the Baltic Sea’s western entrance before the Soviet Union collapsed. This would have prevented the Soviet Union’s Baltic Fleet from entering the North Sea, where it could launch attacks on U.S. supplies convoys.

Russia and NATO have reversed their roles today: A Moscow emboldened could surround NATO’s Baltic members and cut them off. If a new Iron Curtain is to fall, NATO needs to ensure its members are not behind it (see map https://tmsnrt.rs/3tnekaO).

With a population totalling around six million, the three countries share a single land link with the Alliance’s main territory. Between the Kaliningrad, a heavily armed Russian exclave on the west, and Belarus on its east is a corridor measuring 65km (40 miles).

Schmitt Eliassen’s objective is to preserve the waterway, which serves as a supply channel for non-NATO nations Finland and Sweden. The Baltic Sea’s shallow bottom is home to millions of tonnes of ammunition, old mines and chemicals. This area was a result of two World Wars.

Mines – whether old and unexploded or freshly laid – can have an impact beyond destruction, Schmitt-Eliassen said. A mine sighting or rumoured sighting can cause harbours to be closed for several days, while the area gets swept. There’s the possibility that “the supermarket shelves” will be empty if this happens in Baltic.

He said that even commercial ships could become military factors in the narrow western entry to the Baltic. This refers to situations such as the March 2021 incident, when Ever Given’s container ship blocked traffic through Suez Canal for several days.

Vice-admiral Jan Christian Kaack said that while you cannot fault anyone for the incident, it was not attributable to them.

NEAREST TARGET

Land link between Kaliningrad, Belarus and the Baltics is vital for their survival. It is known as the Suwalki Gap and its seizing would end the Baltic States.

Domroese said, retired German general that Putin could easily seize Suwalki Gap. He added, however, that it may happen “in a few decades.”

Putin’s actions in recent times have been unexpected. On February 28, Putin placed Russia’s nuclear weapons on alert. Stoltenberg said to Reuters that the rhetoric was “dangerous and reckless.”

The Kremlin didn’t respond to our request for comment. Putin claims that Russia raised concerns over NATO expansion for three decades. The West dismissed them, and post-Soviet Russia was made to feel humiliated by 1991’s fall of Soviet Union.

According to him, NATO was an American instrument that was increasing its military presence on Ukraine’s soil in a manner that presented a threat to Russia.

Sergei Shoigu (Russia’s Defence Minister) told Putin that the West is increasing military strength near Russia’s Western border on March 11. Putin requested Shoigu prepare a report about how to react.

Volodymyr Zlinskiy the Ukrainian President has stated that Russia is likely to target the Baltic countries. Baltic Sea, a busy maritime market that handles containers and cargoes, connects Russia, Sweden, Finland Estonia Latvia Lithuania, Latvia and Lithuania with the rest.

Peter Sand, the chief analyst of Xeneta’s air and ocean freight rate benchmarking platform Xeneta, stated that it “has changed from being a peaceful area to one where you have to tread carefully.” According to Xeneta data, shipping fees for moving cargoes between Hamburg and Saint Petersburg or Kaliningrad have fallen 15% due to disruptions in logistics and demand.

Since almost 25 years ago, the West believes Russia can be controlled by diplomacy to preserve stability and security throughout Europe. NATO and Russia signed the 1997 “founding act”, which was intended to foster trust and restrict both sides’ presence in eastern Europe.

Allies also wanted to form a partnership with Russia. Russia participated in NATO exercises at the Baltic in 2012 according to U.S. retired Admiral James Foggo. Foggo commanded NATO and U.S. ships in Europe almost for a decade, from 2000 to 2020.

NATO established small multinational combat units in Poland, the Baltic States, and Poland in order to counter Russia’s annexation of Crimea. However, the forces numbers were not intended to break the “founding Act”, which hindered NATO’s ability to send troops to the Baltics or Poland permanently.

We all believed there wouldn’t be any enemy anymore,” said Admiral Rob Bauer of NATO’s Military Committee. We now face a nation showing aggression, and that it has troops that we didn’t think would be used.

While these numbers may change, NATO diplomats claim that more than 40,000 troops are under the NATO Supreme Allied Commander for Europe (SACEUR).

NATO allies moved five air carriers into European waters. They did so in Norway, the Mediterranean and to increase the number of warplanes flying in NATO airspace. It also doubled the size and combat force in Poland and the Baltics. The region’s host nation forces total approximately 290,000. However, they are mainly under their national control.

MOMENT GERMANY

Diplomats, ex-officials and experts believe that the biggest change in NATO’s new normal is Germany’s reversed decades-old policy of low defense spending. Germany, despite being guilt-ridden about its past wars and the resulting peace among its citizens, refused pressure from the United States for it to boost this spending to NATO’s goal of 2% of its economic output. France and Britain meet this goal. However, Germany’s defense spending in 2021 was just 1.5%.

Berlin was seen as an inefficient partner due to its unwillingness to send combat troops and the ageing of its equipment.

However, on February 27th, Olaf Scholz announced that Berlin would meet the target of 2% and promised an injection of 100 billion euro ($110 billion).

Since a long time, Germany has been worried about Moscow’s presence at the Baltic Sea. Berlin came up with a plan to join the west’s naval fleets in the Baltic Sea, following Russia’s annexe of Crimea.

Kaack, the navy chief of staff said that “we simply had to notice the fact that – regardless whether it’s something we love or not – we are the 800-pound gorilla within the ring.” Our partners see us the same way as we view America as a smaller country.

Berlin soon announced that it was buying 35 shortly after Russia invaded. Lockheed Martin F-35 fighter planes of the United States will replace America’s Tornado fleet.

NO MORE CONSTRAINTS

Additionally, the United States has begun to move more military equipment to Europe. This includes vehicles and weapons that can be used by U.S. troops arriving in Belgium, Germany, Germany, and Poland. Instead of waiting for trucks and tanks to arrive from U.S. bases, they are able to use them immediately.

Douglas Lute (ex-ambassador to the United States in NATO) told Reuters that NATO’s “new norm” is a major step forward from the agreement made after Crimea. The document will most likely be written in NATO’s official master strategy document (also known as their “Strategic Concept”), which will be approved at the NATO summit to Madrid in June.

Lute stated that there will be a boost in combat capabilities to both reassure Eastern allies as well as to send a stronger deterrence message towards Russia.

He said NATO’s existing multinational combat units in the Baltics and Poland – originally some 5,000 troops in total – should be significantly increased in size. He stated that he expects “more advanced air defense systems to be deployed forward,” which includes Patriot and other systems from the Baltics or Poland.

He expects that more U.S. military and weapons equipment will be available for pre-positioning in Europe. Romania, Bulgaria and Slovakia could see more NATO troops.

American representatives to NATO were unable to respond. Julianne Smith, the U.S. envoy to NATO, stated that on March 15, the alliance had made commitments to have a stronger force position in Central and Eastern Europe, and create new policy tools.

But – just as in the Cold War – NATO will need to keep communicating with Russia to avoid risking accidents with potentially devastating consequences.

Adam Thomson, former British Ambassador to NATO and director of European Leadership Network in London said that NATO has some responsibility beyond trying to keep Russia out. “It is about managing unavoidable strategic instabilities.”

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