The first test for Evergrande’s debt crisis comes this week — investors will be watching to see if the embattled Chinese property developer is able to pay out its interest due on a bond, or default on it.

The firm is due to pay interest worth $83 million on Thursday, according to data from S&P Global Ratings.

Evergrande’s 5-year, U.S.-dollar denominated bond, had an initial issue size of around $2 billion, according to market data provider Refinitiv Eikon – although the price has plummeted now.

Refinitiv Eikon reports that the yields have risen to 560% from just 10% in January. It is scheduled to expire in March 2022.

The next Wednesday is the due date for another interest payment on a U.S. dollar 7-year bond.

CNBC’s Ray Attrill said that Thursday’s event “promises to be a pivotal event for markets one way or another, larger perhaps than the FOMC result which occurred only a few hours earlier,” referring to U.S. central banks meetings, which investors closely watch.

Analysts and market watchers largely expect Evergrande to miss the interest payment on Thursday. The company will technically not default, unless it doesn’t make it within the 30 day.

S&P Global Ratings said Monday that a default was “likely.”

“Fact is, Evergrande is already in technical default having missed bank interest payment,” said Vishnu Varathan, head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank. He was referring to reports that the Chinese government told major banks that the real estate giant will not be able to pay interest on its loans that were due earlier this week on Monday.

Varathan, in a Tuesday note wrote that Evergrande is responsible for approximately 11% of the Asia-high-yield bond market. “With risk of missing a coupon bond coupon this week,” Varathan said.

Last week, around 100 investors turned up at Evergrande’s headquarters in Shenzhen, demanding repayment of loans on overdue financial products — forming chaotic scenes, according to Reuters.

The priority on domestic investors will therefore have implications on the default risks for offshore dollar-denominated bonds — mostly held by institutional or other foreign investors — versus onshore bonds, mostly held by domestic investors.

“An additional point of interest though is whether the coupon due on offshore bonds will get a less preferential treatment to onshore bond coupons — especially given the asymmetric arrangement whereby offshore default does not trigger cross-default (whereas onshore default triggers cross-default for offshore),” Varathan told CNBC. Cross default is when one default triggers in another situation, causing a wider contagion.

In other words, Evergrande will default on its offshore obligations while honoring its onshore promises? Varathan posed the question.