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Brazil raises interest rates, signals third big hike next month By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO – People walk past the Central Bank Headquarters Building in Brasilia on August 25, 2021. REUTERS/Amanda Perobelli/File Photo

BRASILIA (Reuters) – Brazil’s central bank on Wednesday raised interest rates by 100 basis points and flagged a third straight hike of that size in October as it battles surging inflation with the world’s most aggressive monetary tightening.

Copom (the bank’s rate-setting body) unanimously decided that its benchmark rate would rise to 6.25%. This was according to most economists polled by Reuters.

Brazil is now at the forefront of an international battle against rising consumer prices. The benchmark rate was raised from 2.00% in January to 6.25% as inflation hovers around double-digits 12 months later.

Copom’s accompanying statement stated that they plan to push the process for monetary tightening into more restrictive territory with another full percent rate hike next month.

In a statement, policymakers stated that “this pace of rate increases is most appropriate to ensure inflation convergence at the relevant target horizon” and allow the Committee to gain more information about the economic state and persistence of shocks.

Economists agree that Brazil’s weakening currencies and uncertain fiscal prospects have forced the central banking to adopt a strict approach. Tensions on emerging markets have increased with rising expectations for a U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike in the next year.

Reuters polled 35 economists and found that 25 predicted a 100-basis point increase Wednesday. However, nine others forecast a more aggressive rate rise.

“I believe the central banks was slightly hawkish. I expected more,” said economist Joao Leal of Rio Bravo Investimentos in Sao Paulo.

Others warn that Brazil’s tightening might stop a recovery. It could also lead to stagnant growth. President Jairbolsonaro will be pushing populist policies, as some fear, while he seeks his re-election bid in 2022.

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