(Bloomberg) — Oil may surge to $90 a barrel if the approaching winter in the northern hemisphere proves colder than normal, said Jeff Currie, global head of commodities research at Goldman Sachs Group Inc (NYSE:).

Such a rise would be $10 higher than the bank’s current forecast and would be accompanied by a prolonged period of high prices that already have had disastrous consequences for U.K. power providers.

Currie stated Wednesday that tightening European gas supplies will increase demand for oil, at a moment when world crude production is limited. He cited the global factors that include post-hurricane interruptions in the U.S. Gulf of Mexico. 

Meanwhile, the gas rally shows no signs of abating, “particularly outside the U.S.” as tight supplies run headlong into surging demand, Currie said.

“Supply chains are so severely depleted that the system can not accommodate any type of disruption,” Currie said.

At 4:09 PM in London, benchmark international oil futures increased 1.4% to $75.39. This pushed the year-to date advance to 46%. 

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.