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How the Fed’s policy statement has changed this year By Reuters

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO – The Federal Reserve Building is seen against the blue sky of Washington, U.S.A, May 1, 2020. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque/File Photo

(Reuters) – The Federal Reserve now says its $120 billion in monthly bond purchases are on the way out as the U.S. economy improves despite the persistence of the coronavirus pandemic.

Over several months, the U.S. central banks marked COVID-19’s benefits and tracked “substantial further improvements” on jobs. They also considered whether it should begin to reduce its purchase of Treasuries or mortgage-backed security.

Here is how its guidance evolved this year:

COVID-19

Jan. 27, 2021

Paragraph 2: The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.

Paragraph 3: How the virus progresses and the economic path will affect the future direction of the country’s economy. The current public health crisis is a significant threat to economic growth and the outlook for economic activity. It continues to affect employment and economic activity.

March 17, 2021

Paragraph 2 (unchanged from January): The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world.

Paragraph 3. (unchanged January): Much will depend on how the virus develops, and whether or not vaccines are available. The economic outlook is at risk from the ongoing public health crisis, which continues to impact economic activity, job creation, and inflation.

April 28, 2021

Paragraph 2 (Notes progress on vaccination in new second sentence): The COVID-19 pandemic is causing tremendous human and economic hardship across the United States and around the world. Indicators for economic activity and employment are improving due to strong policy support and progress in vaccinations.

Paragraph 3. (In the second sentence, we drop the reference to inflation and make a more cautious assessment about the outlook.) The course of the virus will have a significant impact on the economic path, as well as the progress made in vaccination. The economic outlook is still at risk due to ongoing public health crises.

June 16, 2021

Paragraph 2 (Amplifies vaccine progress): Progress on vaccinations has reduced the spread of COVID-19 in the United States. Indicators of economic activity have improved and there has been strong support for policy.

Paragraph 3: Expected continued progress. The course of this virus will have a significant impact on the economic path. Although the negative effects of the crisis in public health will continue to be reduced, the risks that could impact the economic outlook are not.

July 28, 2021

Paragraph 2 (Notes further progress with vaccinations): With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen.

Paragraph 3. (Softens assessment COVID-19’s effect on the outlook): It is still a matter of how the virus develops. Although the negative effects of the epidemic on the economy will continue to be reduced, there are still risks.

Sept. 22, 2021

Paragraph 2 (First sentence is unchanged but a revised second sentence acknowledges the impact of the summer-driven surge in cases on pandemic-sensitive economic sectors): With progress on vaccinations and strong policy support, indicators of economic activity and employment have continued to strengthen. While the worst-affected sectors have seen improvements in the last months due to the increased number of COVID-19 patients, this has not helped their recovery.

Paragraph 3 (unchanged as of July): The course of this virus will determine the economic path. While progress on vaccines is likely to continue to decrease the impact of the public healthcare crisis on the economy’s health, there are still risks for the future economic outlook.

‘SUBSTANTIAL FURTHER PROGRESS’

Jan. 27, 2021

Paragraph 4 (Unchanged from December when it introduced the “substantial further progress” standard): In addition, the Federal Reserve will continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward the Committee’s maximum employment and price stability goals.

The language was the same for statements on March 17, April 28th, and June 16th.

July 28, 2021

Paragraph 4 (Includes a new sentence acknowledging “progress” has been made): Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage-backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. The economy has been making progress towards these goals since then and the Committee will continue to evaluate progress at future meetings.

Sept. 22, 2021

Paragraph 4 (Includes a new sentence signaling the standard for starting a bond taper may soon be met): Last December, the Committee indicated that it would continue to increase its holdings of Treasury securities by at least $80 billion per month and of agency mortgage‑backed securities by at least $40 billion per month until substantial further progress has been made toward its maximum employment and price stability goals. The economy has been making progress towards these goals since then. If the economy continues to make progress as it is expected, then the Committee may recommend a slowing down of asset purchases.



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