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Southeast Asia economies will recover ‘much slower’ due to Covid: ADB

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SINGAPORE — Southeast Asian economies will recover at “a much slower pace” than previously thought due to recurring waves of Covid-19, the Asian Development Bank said Wednesday.

It has reduced its 2021 growth projections for Southeast Asia to 3.1% from 4.4%. ADB downgraded economic growth projections for all Southeast Asian economies — except Singapore and the Philippines.

ADB predicts that Southeast Asia will see a 5% growth rate in 2022. It is slightly below its earlier forecast of 5%.

“This subregion’s recovery continues to be curtailed by recurring spikes of COVID-19 cases, resulting in the reimposition of stringent containment measures in some economies,” the bank said in an update to its Asian Development Outlook 2021.

In the past few months, major Southeast Asian countries such as Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia reported an increase in Covid deaths and daily infections. It was the highly infectious delta virus that caused both an increase in deaths and cases.

The global supply chain for manufacturing is dominated by Southeast Asia. Lockdowns and social-distancing measures in the region have prolonged a global shortage of semiconductors, and constrained the supplies of goods such as coffee and clothing.

Slow Covid vaccination

Across developing Asia, many countries are slow in vaccinating their people — and that’s holding back economic recovery, said ADB.

“If you look at developing Asia as a whole … about 35% of the population has been fully vaccinated. That’s well below what you see in the U.S. and Europe,” Abdul Abiad, director of macroeconomic research at ADB, told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia” on Wednesday.  

It’s also been extremely uneven, he stated, noting that only 30% of developing countries have vaccination rates above 30 percent.   

ABD predicted that Asia’s developing countries will see a 7.1% increase in growth this year. This is lower than the 7.3% forecast. The bank has increased its growth projections for 2022 to 5.4%, from 5.3%.

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