(Bloomberg) — The Bank of England could raise interest rates twice by May to curb a surge in inflation, but that largely depends on how high unemployment rises after the end of the government’s furlough program, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch (NYSE:).

“Furlough-end remains key,” BofA economist Robert Wood wrote in a report. “If it goes well, or the BOE feels pressured by spot inflation, it could hike as soon as December and a second time next May.”

The U.S. bank’s main scenario now anticipates the BOE raising its key rate by 15 basis points to 0.25% in February instead of May. After the BOE’s Thursday statement that there is more evidence for tightening monetary policies, the BofA changed its mind. 

It also stated that it expected inflation to rise above 4% this year. This is twice the target. 

“If furlough end results in no rise in unemployment, a hike by or before February would in our view be a very high likelihood,” Wood wrote. “But we think that scenario is far from guaranteed.”

The wage-support program ends on Sept. 30. According to the central bank, unemployment will peak at 5%. This is a far cry from its earlier scenarios during the crisis.