By Richard Cowan

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – The U.S. Congress faces a pair of approaching deadlines to fund the government and address the nation’s $28.4 trillion debt ceiling that will require tricky maneuvering by President Joe Biden’s Democrats over the next few weeks.

To start, the September 30 deadline is to fund federal agencies. If not, the nation will face its second partial shutdown in three year. This would come at a moment when Washington struggles with both the coronavirus epidemic and the bolstering of the economy.

The U.S. Treasury may run out money in October and November to meet its obligations. This means that Congress must act. Otherwise, there is a risk of an historic default.

Here are ways both measures could get enacted into law in coming weeks:

WHAT WILL IT TAKE TO FUND THE GOVERNMENT?

Congress still has time to stop the government shutdown from taking effect on Sept. 30, which could result in the closure of national parks and fewer security screenings at airports. This would also mean that public health services were disrupted during the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, there will be an interruption of benefits checks for veterans and retirees. National parks must remain open.

The House of Representatives has already approved a bill and Democrats and Republicans agree that it is important to act quickly to maintain the government’s operation.

Despite having slim majorities in Congress, Democrats still have a majority. However, the Senate rules require that 60 out of 100 senators agree to block any legislation. Republicans claim they are against the bill as it contains a temporary suspension to the debt limit. They also oppose default by the U.S government, but they would like Democrats to temporarily suspend the debt limit with their vote.

It is possible that the Senate will vote on Monday.

What if the SENATE REPUBLICANS DISABLE THE BILL

If Senate Republicans threaten to block the bill Democrats won’t have much time to respond before the government shuts down.

The Senate Republicans could remove the debt limit clause from the bill, and quickly pass the amended bill in both the House and the Senate.

This could happen in hours or less depending on how close legislators are to Sept. 30 at midnight and whether both parties agree. Filibustering by even one Republican could slow down the process.

WHAT ABOUT A DEBT LIMIT

There are two options for Democrats to raise the debt limit. Goldman Sachs (NYSE 🙂 economists stated last week in a note that this is the “most risky debt-limit deadline for a decade.”

Republicans are being urged to approve the rise by former Treasury Secretaries and Federal Reserve Officials. Democrats pointed out that Republicans supported prior Republican administrations’ increases in Republican priority.

Democrats might present a single debt limit increase to try to convince Republicans that Republicans will either support the bill or reject it. If the latter was true, it would permit the bill’s passage by a simple majority (48 Democrats plus two independents) and by a tie-breaking vote of Vice President Kamala Harris.

HOW ABOUT BUDGET CONCILIATION?

A maneuver called budget reconciliation bypasses the 60 vote requirement to pass a bill in the Senate. When his party was in control of the Senate, Mitch McConnell (the chamber’s top Republican) used this technique to pass a broad tax-cut bill favoring the wealthy. In the minority now, McConnell wants Democrats use the technique to tackle the debt. This will ensure that Republicans don’t have to vote or take responsibility for a higher debt limit, even though they would like one.

It’s complicated.

Democrats might try to insert language about the debt ceiling in Biden’s $3.5 trillion social expenditure bill. However, the party is divided over that bill. It’s unclear that progressives and moderates can agree to compromise in time to avoid default.

A reconciliation bill that focuses on the debt ceiling is another option. This is also time-consuming because bills can trigger the much-disliked “vote a-rama” process with hundreds of possible amendments. Over the last year, there have been multiple sessions that lasted all night.

The reconciliation process is not allowed to increase the debt limit. Therefore, the Senate parliamentarians would likely have to approve a stand-alone debt limitation.

The Bipartisan Policy Centre now predicts that Treasury Department’s borrowing capacity will be exhausted sometime between October 15th and November mid-November. If Congress does not act in time, the U.S. government will likely fall into default.