SPD hold narrow lead in race to succeed Angela Merkel
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Olaf Scholz waves on stage at the Social Democrats (SPD) headquarters after the estimates were broadcast in Berlin on September 26, 2021 after the German general elections.
ODD ANDERSEN AFP/Getty Images LONDON — Germany is poised for a coalition of three parties in Berlin, following the most recent and significant Federal Elections.| AFP | Getty Images
LONDON — Germany looks set for a three-way coalition in Berlin after one of the country’s most significant federal elections in recent years.
Early projections on Sunday night pointed to a knife-edge result, with the center-left Social Democratic Party gaining 25.9% of the vote, according to public broadcaster ARD.
Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union, and Christian Social Union were seen to have 24.3%. Merkel will be stepping down as chancellor after 16 years. However, her conservative alliance is heading towards its worst election results since World War II. It could still hold on to power through consultations with other parties or forming a new coalition.
Partially, the results showed that the Green Party received 14.5%. Liberal Free Democratic Party received 11.5% while right-leaning Alternative for Germany was given 10.5%. Left-leaning Die Linke was likely to get 5%.
After the Sunday night exit poll results were published, both main candidates for the chancellorship, Olaf Scholz from the SPD and Armin Laschet from the CDU-CSU, claimed mandates to govern. However, coalition negotiations which are possible to start on Monday could be delayed by weeks, if not months.
‘Wait for the final results’
Commenting after the exit polls, Laschet conceded the result was disappointing and said it posed a “big challenge” for Germany.
According to Reuters, Laschet said that he could not be content with the election results.
He said that he would do all he could to create a conservative-led government, as Germans need a coalition to modernize their country.
Laschet said that a new coalition without the SPD wasn’t likely and that it would be “the first time we have a government that has three partners.”
Meanwhile, Scholz, who is the current finance minister and vice chancellor of Germany, said that the party must “wait for the final results — and then we get down to work,” according to Reuters.
Although it will be an extended election night, there is no doubt that the SPD has received support from many voters who want to see a change in government.
Possible coalitions
While it’s too early to state a definitive result, the projections mean the SPD or the CDU-CSU would have to form a coalition with two other parties, perhaps the Greens and FDP, to achieve a majority.
Germany experts such as Holger Schmieding from Berenberg Bank said that exit polls were unable to provide clarity about the prospects for Germany’s next leader or the composition of the government.
As expected, both the Scholz-led alliance of the SPD and Greens with the FDP (the ‘traffic lights’) and Holger Schmieding’s coalition with Laschet’s CDU-CSU and Greens is possible. SPD and Greens are very close and would probably offer the FDP, while CDU-CSU or FDP would also try to bring the Greens aboard,” Schmieding wrote in a research paper Sunday evening.
Schmieding said that in order to bring the Greens aboard in the so-called “Jamaica”, coalition, the CDU-CSU would have to make concessions and offer more to the Greens than the bloc could stomach.
Risk removed?
Although the future chancellor for Germany is unknown, these projections dispel investors’ fears that Germany might end up with a coalition consisting of the SPD and Die Linke. Schmieding warned that this alliance could have adversely affected the trend of growth by tax hikes and reform reversals.
“If the official results confirm the exit polls — a big if as the results are close and the high share of postal voters of up to 50% may make the exit polls less reliable than usual — we would breathe a big sigh of relief. “We had previously attached a 20% probability to this tail risk scenario, prior the exit polls,” he stated.
Speaking to CNBC’s Annette Weisbach on Sunday evening, Florian Toncar, a lawmaker for the pro-business FDP said “one good aspect of today’s outcome is that a left coalition including the far-left [Die Linke] has probably no majority, so that facilitates things a lot.
Why it matters
The election is significant because it heralds the departure of Merkel, who is preparing to leave office after 16 years as leader.
The recent German election had not produced any surprises, with Merkel’s win almost certain. However, this race was wide open and difficult to predict. This is even though it was only days until the election.
The Green Party enjoyed a bounce in popularity and took the lead in the polls at one point in April The Social Democratic Party was able to hold a small lead over them in recent weeks.
Merkel’s conservative ruling alliance of Christian Democratic Union/Christian Social Union was unable to rally Germans. Around 40% of those polled were said to have been undecided in the week leading up to the election.
CDU and CSU have been dominating German politics ever since 1949, when both parties created a parliamentary bloc and ran in the first Federal Election after World War II.
The party is now less popular with young German voters, who value green policies and would like to see Germany improve its infrastructure and invest in newer industries.
Voting was held all day on Sunday from 8 a.m. until 6 p.m. (local time) at polling stations across the country. However, a significant number of voters chose to vote by postal ballots in this election due to the coronavirus pandemic.
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