Germany election: What’s next after gridlock
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Members of the German Christian Democrats (CDU) react to initial results at CDU headquarters in federal parliamentary elections on September 26, 2021 in Berlin, Germany.
Getty Images London — Germans wake up to the possibility of political unrest Monday morning after preliminary results indicate that there is gridlock between two major political parties in Germany.| Getty Images News | Getty Images
LONDON — Germans are waking up to political uncertainty on Monday after early results from the country’s federal election indicate gridlock between the two main political forces in the country.
On Monday morning, preliminary results showed that the Social Democratic Party (center-left) won 25.9% of the vote. Angela Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union (and Christian Social Union) was able to win 24.1%.
Merkel, who has served 16 years as Chancellor of Germany, is retiring and her conservative alliance faces its worst election result in over a decade.
The Green Party received 14.8% of votes in the first results. With 11.5%, the liberal Free Democratic Party and 10.3% respectively were seen in comparison to Alternative for Germany. It was anticipated that the left-leaning Die Linke party would win 4.9%.
With no one party gaining a majority of seats in the Bundestag, Germany’s parliament, a coalition government is inevitable, but which party will lead a coalition government — and who will be Germany’s next chancellor — is up in the air.
Because of the rare nature of majorities in Germany, the party that wins elections does not automatically nominate the next chancellor. Instead, the parliament votes for the chancellor once a coalition government has formed.
The main contenders for chancellor — the SPD’s Olaf Scholz and CDU-CSU’s Armin Laschet — will now have to engage in negotiations with other parties in an attempt to form a coalition.
Laschet commented on the exit polls and acknowledged that it was disappointing. He said it presented a “big problem” for Germany. Laschet also told his supporters that he could not be content with the election results.
His party’s Scholz, for its part, told the SPD that they needed to wait to see the final results and then get to work.
All to play for
Coalition building is not expected to be an easy process with compromises and concessions expected to be extracted from the main parties by smaller rivals, such as the Green Party and the FDP.
CDU, CSU and the SPD have been working together in coalition building in recent years. However, the SPD has indicated that it would prefer to have the conservative bloc in the opposition. According to Germany economist Holger Schmieding (chief economist at Berenberg Bank), the process of forming a coalition could take several weeks or months.
According to Schmieding, there are two possible coalitions: the Scholz-led traffic light alliance comprising the SPD and FDP and the Greens with the FDP and the CDU-CSU of Laschet and the Greens.
Read more: Who’s who in Germany’s historic election
The “SPD and Greens, who are close, would likely extend an offer to the FDP whereas [the] CDU-CSU and FDP, who are also close, would try to get the Greens on board,” Schmieding said in a research note Sunday evening, indicating that it is the Greens and FDP that stand to be courted the most in the coming days.
Schmieding pointed out that the CDU-CSU may have to offer concessions in order to get the Greens onto their side.
Florian Toncar, FDP lawmaker, told CNBC’s Annette Weisbach that the FDP is now a possible kingmaker in coalition negotiations and was therefore “very happy” with Sunday night’s result.
He said that the FDP expects to engage in discussions about a German government that is good for Germany. The party also believes that its “special responsibility” as a member of government will come into play.
We are eager to see how our country forms a government, but the problems are immense. We should have been able to solve many of the problems we didn’t resolve in Angela Merkel’s last years. There will be immense pressure on us and many other challenges. It is our job to get Germany back on the right track.
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