By Linda Sieg

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s ruling party votes on Wednesday for the country’s next prime minister in an election that has turned into the most unpredictable race since Shinzo Abe made a surprise comeback almost a decade ago, defeating a popular rival in a runoff.

Unpopular Yoshihide Saku will be succeeded by the winner of Sept. 29’s contest for the leadership of the liberal Liberal Democratic Party. The party holds a strong majority in the lower house.

Taro Kono (58), who is a U.S.-educated ex-defense and foreign minister and seen as a maverick, Fumio Kimio Kishida (61), an extremist and former interior affairs minister Sanae Takaichi (66) from the party’s declining liberal wing.

This race is a rare example of Japanese politics being shaken up by Abe’s almost eight-year-long tenure, during which he was the longest-serving premier. Abe won the 2015 election uncontested and was defeated by his only rival three years later.

LDP factions rallied round Suga following Abe’s resignation, due to his ill-health. Suga’s handling of the COVID-19 epidemic caused voter support to plummet. He announced his resignation ahead of an election scheduled for Nov. 28.

Steven Reed, Chuo University professor emeritus said that “this time there’s no bandwagon to join and factions have been divided.” That’s rare.

The contestants must attract the votes of grassroots LDP members as well as rookie legislators. Popularity ratings are more persuasive than party bosses. However, the rank-and file members of LDP will not have much say in the election if there is no majority for a candidate and that a second round vote takes place between two candidates.

NHK public broadcaster reported Sunday that Kishida led among lawmakers, Kono followed by Takaichi among party members, and that there was a likely second round runoff vote.

Noda and Takaichi, who are both seeking to be Japan’s first woman premier, weren’t initially considered having much chance. However, Takaichi is still unlikely to win despite the fact that Abe’s support and those of core conservatives have helped her chances.

SECURITY, ECONOMIC POLICIES

A win by Kono or Kishida is unlikely to trigger a huge shift in policies as Japan seeks to cope with an assertive China and revive an economy hit by the pandemic, but Kono’s push for renewable energy and to remove bureaucratic obstacles to reform have made him appealing to investors and business chiefs.

They both agree on strengthening Japan’s defenses, strengthening security ties and ties to Washington, Australia, India and the QUAD grouping (Japan, USA, Australia, India) and maintaining vital economic ties and regular summit meetings with China.

Tsuneo Watanabe is a senior fellow of the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. He stated that Japan needs to be tough in defense but keep economic ties with China in order to achieve a balance between America’s and China.

Takaichi was more open about hotbutton topics such as the acquisition of missile launcher capability to attack enemy forces. Also, Takaichi has stated that, as prime minister, she would visit Yasukuni Shrine to war dead. It is regarded in Beijing and Seoul, as a symbol for Japan’s former militarism. Kono said that he wouldn’t.

Kono and Kishida both pointed out the failings of Abe’s “Abenomics”, a mix of expansionary fiscal, monetary and growth strategies to benefit households. Takaichi however has modeled her “Sanaenomics” on her mentor. [L4N2QQ0FG]

Each candidate is expected to focus their efforts on fiscal stimulus, which will help revive the economy and put Japan’s enormous public debt to the sidelines.

Kono prefers legal reforms to permit same-sex marriage. Takaichi is against separate surnames and Kono supports legal changes to allow married couples to have separate surnames.