ZHUHAI, China (Reuters) – China’s C919 jetliner – a no-show at the country’s biggest air show this week – has found it harder to meet certification and production targets amid tough U.S. export rules, according to three people with knowledge of the programme.

These people stated that the Chinese state-owned company, Commercial Aircraft Corp of China (COMAC), was unable to receive timely assistance from suppliers and ran out of spare parts.

Since December 2020, any U.S. company that has ties with the Chinese military requires special licensing to be able to export parts. This has caused a major disruption to the C919 program, which is in its 13th year of development – the longest period in aviation.

U.S. suppliers linked to China are slowly getting the licenses. But, because Chinese certification is slowing down, long delays could affect production.

COMAC holds 815 provisional orders. However, only China Eastern Airlines has placed a firm order to purchase five of the jets.

In August, the state-backed airline stated that it expected to receive the first C919 in the middle of next year. Two more C919s will follow in 2022. And two more C919s in 2023.

C919’s slow production growth would ensure that it will not be a significant threat to Airbus (NYSE:) and Boeing (NYSE;), both of which make dozens narrowbodies each month.

The supply chain will be a major hurdle, particularly now that inflation, material availability is changing and suppliers change, said Alex Krutz from Patriot Industrial Partners in the U.S.

He added that “the suppliers may not have enough liquidity or will be willing to continue to support an initial lower-rate programme such as COMAC” after certification.

COMAC is many years behind the original certification timeline, and this was one reason why it failed to take the C919 on the China Airshow.

“COMAC seem very focused on test flights. According to an industry source, they are behind schedule and flying as many hours as possible in order to meet the requirements for Chinese certification.” COMAC remains determined, despite all obstacles, to be certified. This is an important political mission.

The C919 could receive its type certification from China’s aviation regulator in the middle of next year. But, flight operations will have to be restricted. Sources said that COMAC will need to make improvements even after certification.

COMAC (China Civil Aviation Administration of China) and CAAC did not reply to inquiries for comment.

CAUTIOUS REGULATOR

The sources with knowledge of the C919 programme said the jet’s progress seemed to mirror the certification pattern and slow production of its predecessor, the ARJ21 regional jet.

ARJ21 was faced with a 2.5 year gap between the issuance of a “type certification”, which declared its design safe, as well as a “production cert” that allows it to go into mass production.

Contrast this with West Asia, where these certificates are usually granted at roughly the same moment.

The delivery of 60 ARJ21 planes has been completed to date. But, production ramp up was slower than expected, increasing from 2 aircraft per year in 2017 and to 24 in 2020 according to COMAC statistics.

C919’s are currently in the “batch” phase, where each plane needs to be approved by the regulator.

FOREIGN PARTS

The C919 is assembled in China but relies heavily on Western components, including engines and avionics. It has been vulnerable to restrictions on technology transfers.

Two COMAC-related subsidiaries were added to the list of military-related companies in December 2020, which created bureaucratic licensing requirements.

China has intensified its work on the C919 engine; Aero Engine Corporation of China (AECC), the state-owned engine manufacturer, will present a CJ-1000 model at the show. However, the national solution is still many years away.

According to local media, AECC plans to spend 10 billion yuan ($1.55 million) to construct an industrial complex in Chengdu’s southwestern region to make thrust reversers as well as engine nacelles. Sources close to the subject said that the complex was used for CJ-1000 manufacturing.

According to reports, the nacelle’s capacity will reach 100 annually, sufficient for 50 aircraft, although no date has been set. AECC has not responded to a request immediately for comment.

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