By Joseph Ax and James Oliphant

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – Almost a year after President Joe Biden trounced Donald Trump in Virginia, the state’s unexpectedly tight race for governor has alarmed Democrats and left Republicans hopeful they can win back crucial suburban voters who left the party during Trump’s tumultuous presidency.

Cook Report, a nonpartisan publication, has declared the Nov. 2 race between Glenn Youngkin and Terry McAuliffe, a Republican businessman from Virginia, a tossup. According to a University of Mary Washington poll, Youngkin had a higher percentage of likely voters in a last week’s survey.

This is an unexpected showing of strength by the Republican in a Southern State that has trended Democratic over recent years. Trump’s loss in November was 10 percent, almost double the defeat he suffered in 2016. This could be due to Trump’s scorched-earth policies, which disenfranchised suburban voters and moderate female voters.

As one of the first statewide elections since Trump’s departure, the Virginia race is seen as a barometer for national political trends and a preview of what is to come in the 2022 elections that will decide which party controls Congress.

The current Virginia governor Ralph Northam is a Democrat and cannot run for re-election. This state bans consecutive term serving as governors.

While McAuliffe, 64, remains favored, Democrats “should absolutely be worried about the prospect of losing this race,” said Jesse Ferguson, an aide to Democrat Hillary Clinton’s 2016 presidential campaign.

He said, “This is definitely a four-alarm fire.” It’s been burning hot for several months.

Recent challenges for the Biden administration include the chaotic withdrawal of troops from Afghanistan, the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and the humanitarian crisis at America’s southern border.

The White House is facing the possibility of government shutdown this week if Congress fails to reach an agreement to fund the federal government. Meanwhile, Democrats split on a huge spending bill which includes Biden’s top priorities.

According to a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted last week, 44% of U.S. adults approved of Biden’s performance, while 51% disapproved – his lowest marks since taking office in January.

Youngkin, 54, a former chief executive of The Carlyle Group (NASDAQ:) Inc private equity firm, provides an alternative for voters who were not comfortable with Trump but do not feel at home in the Democratic Party, said Tom Davis, a former Republican congressman from northern Virginia.

“These people voted for Biden because they didn’t want Donald Trump in their living room for four more years,” Davis said.

Youngkin is a “speaker of suburbania,” he stated. People don’t have to be embarrassed to put a Youngkin sign in their yards.”

Democrats will be closely watching this race. A lack of enthusiasm among their voters and some independents who backed Biden in November is a worrisome harbinger ahead of next year’s elections, said Ben Tribbett, a Virginia-based Democratic strategist.

“Democrats have a year to turn this around, but right now the electorate is not where we need them to be for the midterms,” Tribbett said.

A CHECK ON POWER

The governor’s race in Virginia has often served as a check on the party holding the White House. Virginians elected Democrat Mark Warner after Republican George W. Bush won the presidency. In 2009, Republican Bob McDonnell won a year into Democrat Barack Obama’s presidency. Although Virginia’s trend has been more in the liberal direction, it remains competitive with Trump absent from the ballot. Experts say that this makes Virginia more attractive to Democrats.

The former president still looms large: The election has become a test of whether Republicans such as Youngkin can successfully navigate the space between having Trump’s support and being branded as a full-fledged adherent to his “Make America Great Again” movement.

Youngkin has cast himself as an outsider businessman rather than a politician picking up Trump’s mantle. He has also tried not to drift too far away from Trump’s circle as to alienate his loyal supporters.

He has not endorsed Trump’s false stolen-election claims, although he spoke at an “election integrity” rally in August held by Trump supporters. While he advocated for Virginians being vaccinated against COVID-19, he opposed mandates that they use vaccines or masks. Youngkin has advocated that voters be able to vote by mail, which Trump falsely called untrustworthy.

An adviser to Youngkin, Kristin Davison, said the campaign has brought together “forever Trumpers and never Trumpers” —trying to appeal to Trump’s base while reaching out to independents and disaffected Democrats on issues such as inflation, education and crime.

That strategy has a downside. Trump argued in a recent radio interview that Youngkin needs to fully “embrace the MAGA movement” or risk losing. McAuliffe tried to tie Youngkin with Trump at all costs, suggesting that there’s little room between them.

“He is a Trump wannabe,” McAuliffe said of his rival at their first debate. The second debate will take place on Tuesday.

CORONAVIRUS ELECTION

McAuliffe, who served as the state’s governor from 2014 to 2018, increasingly has made the contest about safeguards against the virus. Youngkin has been criticized by McAuliffe, who has publicly stated that he would mandate vaccinations of all educators and health workers.

A source close to the campaign told Reuters that McAuliffe believes it will help suburban parents.

A source familiar with the White House’s thinking said McAuliffe was running a race centered on COVID-19 and the economy, similar to the themes Democratic California Governor Gavin Newsom emphasized in handily defeating a Republican-led recall campaign this month.

According to the source, McAuliffe isn’t worried about his race. “We always knew it was going to be close.”