By Linda Sieg

TOKYO (Reuters) – Japan’s former premier Shinzo Abe wasn’t running in this week’s ruling party poll to pick Japan’s next leader but the victory of his one-time foreign minister, Fumio Kishida, means Abe and his conservative base are the winners, their policy clout assured.

Analysts say that Abe’s tough defense policies and firm stance towards Beijing will form the foundation for Japan’s security and diplomacy policies.

Tsuneo Watanabe is a senior fellow with the Sasakawa Peace Foundation. She stated that Japan will prioritize strengthening its ties to America as well as bolstering Japan’s defense capabilities.

They will also try to minimize economic harm as much as they can.

Japan’s longest serving premier Abe resigned last year due to ill-health. Yoshidide, his long-serving lieutenant and successor, took his place.

Suga had to resign after his voter ratings plummeted over the handling of COVID-19, which caused rare political uncertainty within a four-way party leadership race.

At the beginning of the Liberal Democrtatic Party leadership race (LDP), Abe didn’t support Kishida but instead endorsed Sanae Takaichi his ultra-conservative protégé, who was hoping to be Japan’s first woman premier.

Her lawmaker support backed Kishida against Taro Kono in the runoff after Takaichi’s surprisingly strong performance in the first round vote. Taro Kono was seen by right-wing critics as being too soft on China and unpredictable by party bosses.

Kishida (64) is a concord-style politician who has a dull image. He was elected LDP president Wednesday. It virtually ensured Suga’s success as prime minister thanks to the party’s hold on parliament.

Tobias Harris (senior fellow at The Center for American Progress), said that Takaichi’s running for office and Abe supporting her full-throttle was what changed the race.

According to analysts, Kishida may take Abe’s wishes into consideration when he reshuffles cabinet ministers and top party posts. The outcome of that reshuffle will be closely scrutinized.

Takaichi likely to be appointed to a party post or cabinet job, and former Economy Minister Akira Amari who is an Abe ally, will replace Toshihiro Nakai (known for his links to China).

Harris spoke out about Nikai’s possible exit, saying that “that means one less important voice (in favor of getting along) with China.”

TACKING TO THE RIGHT

The soft-spoken Kishida, from a traditionally dovish LDP faction, had already tacked to the right during the LDP campaign, reflecting an ongoing shift in the LDP as well as the likelihood he would need Abe’s help to win.

Kishida stated that the possibility of acquiring the capability to strike enemy base, which was controversially backed by Abe’s support, is a feasible option. He also said that he would nominate an adviser to oversee China’s treatment Uyghur minorities. China denied any allegations of abuse.

He also described Taiwan, which is considered by China to be a rebel province, as the “frontline” of a fight by democratic countries against authoritarianism’s advances in a media interview.

He also plans to continue engagement with the QUAD Grouping consisting of Japan (USA, Australia and India), which Beijing considers an effort to curb its growth.

Gerry Curtis (Columbia University Professor Emeritus) said that Abe would try to move Kishida to the left and will have little success. It means that Abe will pursue more robust security measures and take a very strong stance on Taiwan issues, but not much else.

Kishida was vague on the topic of Yasukuni Shrine to war-dead, which Seoul and Beijing consider a symbol of Japan’s past militarism. Abe was the premier of Japan in 2013 and visited the shrine again, angering South Korea and China. It also upset Washington.

Koichi Nakano of Sophia University stated that Kono had wanted to succeed as prime minister. But he was loyal to Abe, and also (Finance Minister Taro (Aso),” a party heavyweight. He added that Kishida must accommodate these views.

The first challenge for Kishida will be the general election, which must take place by November 28. A likely bounce in public support should help the LDP to avoid the worst-case scenario of losing to voters tired of Suga.