(Bloomberg) — Global risk assets are likely to enjoy a far more favorable backdrop in the coming weeks, if historical patterns are a guide, after what is a customarily stormy month for investors.

The September performance was its worst since September last year, with just one day left. In the same time, MCSI Emerging Markets Index fell 4.5%.

China equity traders are desperate for catalysts, especially after months of turmoil. The National Day holiday, also known as “Golden Week,” could provide a gauge on how far consumption is from bottoming out, after strict virus controls dampened spending.

The benchmark index has suffered its worst quarter since March 2020, as Beijing’s crackdown on companies, China Evergrande Group’s crisis and a power crunch bruised stocks.

According to historical trading data, equity investors have good news: China-linked markets are more likely to recover or stabilize during Chinese holidays.

In general, the October surge has been led by emerging market stocks, which have experienced an average 2.6% return over 10 years. Shares in other developed markets and the U.S. also rose. The gains are extended by all three cohorts for the fourth quarter, and U.S. shares returned nearly 5% in average. Data from Bloomberg.

Of course there’s a caveat: the much-discussed wall of worry markets need to climb from central bank tapering to debt ceilings to stagflation to possible changes at the top of the Fed. Risk assets are able to rise if they have the right seasonal support.