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Warby Parker soared in its market debut, setting a high bar for online retailers

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Co-CEOs, Neil Blumenthal & Dave Gilboa of Warby Parker at the NYSE, September 29, 2021.

Source: NYSE

Warby Parker‘s debut Wednesday set a good precedent for a number of online-first retailers preparing to go public.

Warby shares soared 36% on Wednesday. Warby, which was founded in 2010, began selling eyewear online. It has not used wholesalers to sell its products. The brand’s direct listing on NYSE puts a spotlight upon a group of direct-to consumer brands who could move to Wall Street.

Fabletics, Allbirds and Rent the Runway all come to my mind. Other peers — including the makeup brand Glossier, luggage start-up Away, athletic apparel brand Nobull and the sustainable shoe maker Rothy’s — might not yet be eyeing the public markets, but they’ve long followed Warby’s so-called direct-to-consumer playbook.

Experts believe Warby stock is still too expensive at $6 billion. This means investors need to be careful. Although Warby does have a growth story that it can sell, analysts say the stock is still unprofitable and needs to be proven to justify its current valuation. Wall Street will have a greater say in how Warby shares trade in coming weeks, as it is likely to be more reflective of Wall Street’s acceptance of Warby’s direct business model.

“The market’s perception of Warby is very, very generous,” said Dan McCarthy, an assistant professor of marketing at Emory University, who follows brands like Peloton, Revolve and Casper that began by selling products online directly to consumers. People are open to giving the company the benefit.

“The fact that they get so much value from customers so far into the future can at least allow them to plausibly talk about scenarios where — a long time in the future — they will be significantly more profitable than today,” he said.

McCarthy suggested that Warby should be valued at $2.5 billion. It’s still well below the price at which shares changed hands Thursday night, around $53 per unit. This is even less than what $40 Warby paid the night prior to its direct listing. That’s a valuation of $4.5 billion.

McCarthy stated that this is an indication that public companies have access to a market for selling, which would be a strong sign.

Volatility ahead

However, companies like Warby have shown mixed performance this year. Renaissance Capital investment bank says that 12 online retailers, including Warby, have been publicly traded so far in 2018, compared to 9 for 2020. Shares of the scrubs-maker Figs, for example, are up about 31% since listing. But Jessica Alba’s Honest Company has seen its stock drop more than 43%.

Warby stock shares fell a little on Thursday to close at 2.6%.

Kathleen Smith, co-founder and principal at Renaissance Capital, said that most direct listings will result in the stock falling below its initial listing price within 90 days.

“They certainly deserve the attention of investors,” she said in an interview on CNBC’s “Power Lunch.” “It’s a strong brand. They are a pioneer in direct-to consumer. “They’ve done an excellent job.”

But, she warned that roughly 80% of Warby’s outstanding shares can be sold due to terms of the direct list. As with a traditional IPO, there’s no lockup period. This could lead to volatility in trading over the next few weeks.

Premium valuation

“Maybe Warby has done a good job of selling today’s investors through rose-colored glasses, because this is a company that is going to have a lot of overhang,” Smith said. The company is also priced much higher than any of its peers.

Warby trades at an average 13-times trailing revenues valuation. Smith stated that some peers sell closer to three to four times sales. Meantime, retailers like Yeti and Canada Goose — which also began with a direct-to-consumer approach — trade at a multiple of six-times revenue.

Smith explained that “there’s a large gap between what’s going on with trading here with Warby, and what’s actually happening in the real world and the rest the market.” Warby will have to show that this premium valuation is true.

Some believe Warby’s high valuation may be justified. According to the company, it currently holds 1% of all eyewear sales, which is less than the market for Vision Source and Luxottica.

Reena Aggarwal is a Georgetown University professor and expert on public listing. She said, “There’s huge growth potential for businesses like this.” Another positive aspect of this story is that they have a ‘do good ‘philosophy.

Warby has been classified as a “public benefit corporation”, meaning that it must balance shareholders’ interests with those of other stakeholders. Warby also operates a “buy one and give one” program that allows it to donate one pair for every pair purchased.

Aggarwal explained that the company’s valuation is huge based upon the current market price. If it does not crash, then the relative valuation will also be established.

Over the coming months, Warby will have to keep an eye on how its operations are managed and what it chooses to do with its capital.

One analyst already isn’t sold on the company’s plans to open dozens more retail stores, viewing this as a capital-intensive endeavor that could come back to haunt Warby. Today the company operates in 145 stores. The company has stated that it will open between 30 and 35 new shops in the coming year, with an annual goal to increase its growth rate.

“I honestly doubt they will ever achieve any meaningful profitability,” said David Trainer, founder and CEO of the investment research firm New Constructs. You’ll soon go bankrupt if you grow up but don’t make any money.

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