TOKYO, Reuters – Japan’s household expenditure likely fell back in contraction after the government increased emergency curbs to control the coronavirus. A Reuters poll on Friday showed that.

This week, the government ended the state of emergency that it had declared to fight the pandemic. The number of deaths and new cases has fallen rapidly since September.

The median forecast of 18 economists at Reuters shows that household spending will fall by 1.5% this August compared to a year ago.

Monthly spending will drop by 2.0%, which is the fourth consecutive month of decline.

Mizuho Research Institute economists said that real consumer spending will be lower than in the past month.

The spread of coronavirus caused a decrease in services spending, but bad weather and decreased demand for goods led to fewer service purchases.

The world’s third-largest economy has bounced back https://www.reuters.com/business/japan-upgrades-q2-gdp-stronger-business-spending-2021-09-08 from a sharp contraction in the first three months of the year thanks to solid business spending and positive private consumption, growing an annualised 1.9% in the second quarter.

The resurgence of COVID-19 in the summer may have had an impact on private consumption and growth overall in the third quarter. On Nov. 15, the government will publish a preliminary estimate of July-September gross national product.

The poll on Friday found Tokyo’s core consumer prices index (which includes oil but does not include fresh food) was expected to increase 0.2% in September compared with a year ago. This marks its first year-on year growth since July 2013.

The current account will report a surplus of 1.54 trillion Japanese yen (13.84 Billion) in August. This is down from the 1.91 billion yen recorded in July.

Tokyo core CPI data will be available on Oct. 5th, at 8:30 am (Oct. 4 2330 GMT), household spending data on October 8th at 8:30 am (Oct. 7,2330 GMT) as well as the current account balance at 8:50 (Oct. 7. 2350 GMT).

($1 = 111.2700 yen)