(Reuters) – The U.S. Jobs numbers released Friday, and an OPEC+ Meeting on Monday that will review crude oil prices as they top $80 a barrel on Monday are key market items as 2021 moves into the homestretch after a difficult Q3.

These are five stories that will dominate investors’ and traders’ thinking over the next week.

1/’DECENT JOBS’

In September, the U.S. Fed said trimming monthly bond purchases could be warranted “soon”; Chair Jerome Powell (https://www.reuters.com/business/feds-powell-frustrating-that-supply-chain-kinks-arent-getting-better-2021-09-29) noted it’ll take one more “decent” jobs report to set the wheels in motion – not a “super-strong” one, just one that’s “reasonably good”.

Can Friday’s September Nonfarm Numbers – which is the final official job report before the Fed meets in November – be enough?

According to Reuters, 500,000 new jobs will be created in August due to the huge miss. Fed’s $120billion-a-month buying of government bonds helped double the lows in March 2020. But tapering and rate hike prospects have lifted U.S. Treasury yields and contributed to the S&P’s 4% drop in September. (https://www.reuters.com/business/half-sp-500-is-correction-territory-or-worse-2021-09-28) 

Stronger-than-expected numbers might fuel fears the Fed could wind down easy-money policies faster than anticipated, potentially causing more market turbulence.

Fed begins tapering of “reasonably good September jobs” Are you a dud? 

ARK fund battered in broad tech selling down by soaring Treasury yields

(Graphic: U.S. nonfarm payrolls – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/zdpxodwzqvx/Pasted%20image%201632930945719.png)

2/3 RATES DOWN UNDER

New Zealand and Australia have to make rate decisions. These two countries are geographically separated only by the Tasman Sea. However, they differ in monetary policy.

Markets are almost certain that Wednesday’s decision by the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will be made. The key rate at 0.5% is expected to rise by quarter-points. [RBNZWATCH]. Governor Adrian Orr and crew were ready to become the first in the developed world to hike in August, but a COVID outbreak coinciding (https://www.reuters.com/article/newzealand-economy-rates-idUSW9N2KO021) with the policy meeting scuppered those plans, leaving the Norges Bank to take the honours. (https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/norway-raises-interest-rates-says-another-hike-likely-december-2021-09-23)

Australia’s Reserve Bank will meet on Tuesday. They are at the opposite end to the hawk-dove spectrum. Despite a red-hot housing market (https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/australian-housing-borrowing-booms-regulators-ready-new-lending-rules-2021-09-30), Governor Philip Lowe threw cold water on markets recently, saying he found it “difficult to understand why rate rises are being priced in next year or early 2023.”

Norway raises its rates, triggering the great exit of central banks

Graphic: Is inflation a road to the 1970s? – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/mypmnorbdvr/inflationtheme3009.png)

3:WINTER OF DISCONTENT

China’s power cuts, the queues at petrol pumps in Britain and the soaring prices of energy all around are just a few examples.

These headlines resonate strongly with 1970s, especially in Britain. The army will alleviate fuel shortages which have led to gas station fights and gaps in supermarket shelves. The end of a COVID jobs support (https://www.reuters.com/world/the-great-reboot/end-furlough-brings-uncertainty-uk-jobs-economy-2021-09-28) scheme means more uncertainty.

Some believe that a “winter” of discontent in the 1970s, when Britain’s economy was stricken by strike action and power cut, is upon us. Britain isn’t the only country affected. China’s power cuts (https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-seeks-calm-power-supply-fears-crunch-bites-2021-09-29) have crippled industrial output, European consumers face higher winter fuel bills as gas prices soar.

For battered Sterling, any signs of relief from the rising pressures on supply chains and labour shortages as well as energy prices will be a welcome sign.

On Wednesday, the International Monetary Fund released its take on inflation. It could help us understand if rampant prices are similar to those of the 1970s.

Inflation can be stopped by shortages, from ships to chips.

What is the secret to China’s current power crisis?

(Graphic: New Zealand gets ready (again) to hike interest rates – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dwvkrdmkbpm/NZTHEME3009.PNG)

4/PUMP IT UPS

Ministers of OPEC+ – the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (allies led by Russia) – will meet Monday to discuss output policy. They face high oil prices of over $80 per barrel, which is three years higher than previous records and consumers’ demand for more supply.

Until recently, sources expected the group to stick to the existing plan (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/opec-seen-sticking-november-output-plans-despite-80-oil-2021-09-29) agreed in July and boost output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) a month to phase out 5.8 million bpd in cuts.

However, with the rise in oil prices due to unplanned outages by the U.S. and a robust demand recovery following the pandemics, this thinking may be changing: OPEC+ sources stated that adding more oil was being considered as a possibility.

The White House, which raised concerns about high prices, said it was in communication with OPEC (https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/white-house-speaking-with-opec-about-oil-prices-2021-09-28) and looking at how to address the cost of oil.

OPEC+ examines the options of releasing additional oil on the market –sources

(Graphic: OPEC peak oil demand – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/dwvkrdybkpm/Untitled.png)

5/BUMPY HOMESTRETCH

The past three months have been quite an adventure: Chinese markets experienced some of the worst falls in their history, oil prices plummeted, commodity and shipping costs rose, and now there are clear signs that the central banks may be turning off the money taps.

This has been the most severe shakeout since COVID-19 started to affect world stocks early last year. In addition to bonds suffering a poor September, taper talk made it difficult for bond markets to have a good September. The safe-haven dollar, however, is on track for its best year since 2015.

Markets pricing in the end of “Goldilocks”, when inflation and growth are not too high or too low, is forecast by analysts. Analysts expect a bumpy ride. Investors need to pay attention to the bears.

(Graphic: Global markets in 2021 and Q3 – https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/mkt/klvykgrolvg/Pasted%20image%201633008776406.png)