Jason Lange and Joseph Ax

(Reuters) – When Republican-controlled states such as Texas and Florida gained U.S. House of Representative seats thanks to 2020 census data showing their populations are booming, it appeared Democrats were in for another bleak redistricting cycle.

However, the Census also showed that most nation’s economic growth has been in urban areas. The party’s prospects in the coming decade look less grim due to Trump’s shift among suburban white voters to Democrats.

Proposals for new congressional maps in Republican-controlled states such as Texas, Indiana and Georgia do not aggressively target Democratic incumbents and instead seek mostly to protect vulnerable Republicans whose suburban districts have become political battlegrounds.

Democrats in New York, Illinois and elsewhere are eager to pass their maps. There, urban growth and rural decline provide a way to remove Republican districts. These gains could counter Republican advantages elsewhere.

The legislature has the authority to draw new congressional districts in most states after the U.S. Census. Legislators often try to alter maps for their party’s benefit, a process known as gerrymandering.

These are crucial elections. Republicans will only need five seats at the 2022 election to win control of the House. This would allow them to effectively veto Democratic President Joe Biden’s legislative agenda.

The redistricting for the 187 seats in Congress is currently controlled by Republicans, while it’s 75 for Democrats. This according to analysis done by New York University’s Brennan Center for Justice. The rest of the 173 seats belong to states with single districts, bipartisan or independent redistricting committees.

Since 2010, when the party gained control of more than two dozen state legislative chambers, many Republican States have been using gerrymandered map since the previous round of redistricting.

Paul Smith of Campaign Legal Center is responsible for overseeing litigation and strategy. This advocacy group promotes fair elections.

It is not clear what the end result will be. The final outcome is uncertain in more than 40 States. This means that litigation to challenge district lines will be inevitable.

‘DEFENSIVE GERRYMANDER’

Atlanta and Austin in Texas were among the most populated cities in America in 2010. This growth was driven largely by minority communities who are more inclined to vote Democratic.

Republicans have had to relinquish some Democratic gains because of demographic change and are now focusing their attention on other areas.

For example, redistricting in Austin had been done in the past to weaken Austin’s liberal influence by mixing Austin voters with its conservative suburban residents in an insane grid of districts. About 75% of Travis County’s voters are Austin, and they voted for Biden by a margin of 45 points.

However, suburban voters are now strongly against Republicans. The 2020 census revealed that the city had grown by over 20%. Republican state legislators were forced to create a map this week that would have placed much of Austin in a new, overwhelmingly Democratic district. This was to help Republicans gain seats in surrounding areas.

In order to maintain the current Republican advantage, the proposed map would include two new districts, thanks to Texas’s nation-leading population boom.

The new lines would mean that only three districts in the state, which includes 38 of its constituents, had less than 10 percent of Trump’s margin. This excludes third-party votes.

Michael Li, an expert in redistricting at the Brennan Center said that it is a defense gerrymander rather than an offensive. It’s still not perfect, however.

Democrats and advocacy organizations have criticised the map’s inability to create districts that include a majority minority vote. These voters were the ones responsible for almost all the state’s population growth. Certain districts must be created by federal law to protect minority voters’ rights.

Ron Reynolds, Democratic State Assemblyman said that he believes it was deliberate and intentional to reduce the rapid growth of the minorities in Texas.

Joan Huffman (Republican state senator) did not reply to our request for comment.

A proposed Georgia map by the state Senate Republicans is threatening Lucy McBath (Democrat) who occupies a former Republican District in Atlanta’s suburbs.

Carolyn Bourdeaux was the only Democrat who flipped a Republican House seat in 2012. Her district would become more Democratic. This is a reflection of the increasing diversity that led to Biden’s unexpected statewide win.

DEMOCRATS ON THE OFFENSE

Democrats seek to offset any losses in the states that they control by taking on offense.

New York could be the most prized cycle, with Democrats governing redistricting.

Analysts believe that the supermajorities of Democrats in the legislature could result in five Republican seats being eliminated. An advisory map has been created by a bipartisan committee, which Democrats are able to refuse.

Republicans accuse Democrats of trying to forcefully implement a gerrymander.

The Democrats appear to be poised also to wipe out at least one and maybe two Republican seats in Illinois. The Democratic majority in Oregon pushed through this week a map that grants the party an advantage in five out of six districts.

New York State Senator Mike Gianaris is a Democrat and co-chairs the redistricting committee. If the commission fails to succeed, Gianaris said that the goal was to draw lines “fairly” in order to accommodate demographic changes.

“Just because it will have more Democrats doesn’t mean it was drawn with that purpose,” said he, acknowledging the fact that nobody is “ignorant of the national implications” of what he did.