Julien Ponthus gives a glimpse at the future from Julien Ponthus

When the Northern Hemisphere autumn begins, it is only green.

Dollar is currently trading at or below its one-year peak against other currencies, and it is on track for the best year since 2015. Recent data indicates that “long dollar” positioning is at its highest point since March 2020.

Higher Treasury yields, a more hawkish Federal Reserve, and concerns over the U.S. debt limit battle all combine to push the greenback higher.

An increasing dollar is usually a negative sign for markets. Perhaps unsurprisingly, the four-week run of strength coincided in world stocks experiencing a seven month-long run to gain in September. For emerging markets, dollar strength is often bad news. This was evident in September’s rather poor performance.

Some strategists wonder, if the British pound really is acting like one.

What is the reason? It’s the feeling you get when rising interest rates don’t lift your currency and bond markets are less attractive than they used to be.

Although markets had expected the Bank of England would raise rates, it has not done so. Sterling fell to its lowest point of the year on Monday.

A storm is coming to Sterling due to supply shortages, rising energy prices and dollar strength.

As Boris Johnson, Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, admits that a period “of adjustment” is necessary to resolve doubts over his government’s economic strategy, there are growing concerns about its economy. Some pundits warn of a 1970s-style “winter” of discontent.

The September nonfarm data for Friday will be released. This could help the Fed encourage currency traders to unwind stimulus. Today’s meeting of OPEC+ oil producer’s will be watched by those who are concerned about crude oil prices below $80 a barrel.

Asian stock bourses opened the week lower, while China Evergrande shares were frozen after Evergrande missed an interest payment. Futures on stocks point to a weaker session across Europe and Wall Street.

These are the key developments which should give more direction to markets Monday.

OPEC meeting on oil price rally: output increases are discussed

–CD&R wins $10 bln auction for UK supermarket Morrisons

— EU Recovery Plans to be discussed by Euro zone Finance Ministers

— Fed speakers: Boston interim President Kenneth Montgomery,  St Louis Fed’s James Bullard,

— Orders for US Durable Goods and Factory Products