Parisa Hafezi & John Irish

DUBAI (Reuters). Several weeks ago, the West tried to find a solution to one question from Tehran: When will it resume nuclear talks with Iran that were suspended since June? Iran’s reply was simple, but vague.

Analysts said that Tehran’s stubbornness is a deliberate attempt to win leverage and extract additional concessions in the negotiations. Officials also stated that Tehran could use this opportunity to increase its uranium enrichment program, which may lead to a path to nuclear weapons.

Iran denies ever seeking nuclear weapons.

The talks, which aim to bring both Washington and Tehran back into compliance with a 2015 nuclear pact aimed at curbing the Iranian enrichment programme, were adjourned in June after hardliner cleric Ebrahim Raisi https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-election-raisi-newsmaker-idAFKCN2DR0GV was elected Iran’s president.

“Iran will return eventually to the Vienna talks. However, we don’t have to rush because time is our ally. “Our nuclear progress continues every day,” an Iranian senior official stated under anonymity.

Ali Vaez, senior Iran analyst at the International Crisis Group, said “more time equals more leverage, given the exponential growth of Iran’s nuclear program”.

While China and Russia, closer trading partners of Iran, are more restrained, Western parties to the pact can scarcely conceal their frustration https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-must-return-nuclear-talks-avoid-escalation-french-official-says-2021-09-28. European and American powers have called on Iran to resume negotiations, stating that the diplomatic window could not be closed forever because Tehran’s nuclear program is moving beyond what was allowed by 2015 pact.

The nuclear agreement limited Iran’s uranium enrichment activity to make it harder for Tehran to develop nuclear arms, in return for lifting international sanctions https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/ebb-flow-sanctions-iranian-oil-2021-04-22.

But former U.S. President Donald Trump ditched the deal in 2018, saying it did not do enough to curb Iran’s nuclear activities, ballistic missile program and regional influence, and reimposed sanctions that have crippled Iran’s economy.

Tehran reacted by building stockpiles full of enriched Uranium and refining the material to increase its fissile purity.

“They (Iran), keep saying that they will come back to the table. “But when they tell them soon…it means absolutely nothing,” said an experienced European diplomat.

    “That doesn’t mean we think they don’t want to come back, but we think they want their cake and to eat it. They want to create a fait accompli on the ground – technical and nuclear – and preserve the possibility of a negotiation.”

More for less

Iran’s leaders are encouraged by U.S. chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan. Analysts said that their insistence on stalling will have no serious consequences, particularly when Joe Biden, the U.S. president, is involved in growing rivalry against China and fighting a COVID-19 crises at home.

Oppositionally, the Biden administration signalling to Iran that it should not take everything for granted

Top U.S. officials will tell visiting Israeli counterparts https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/biden-aides-tell-israelis-us-will-pursue-other-avenues-if-iran-diplomacy-fails-2021-10-05 in Washington on Tuesday they are committed to diplomacy but would be prepared to pursue “other avenues” to ensure Tehran does not acquire a nuclear weapon, a senior U.S. official said.

Israel says it will not allow Tehran https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/un-israeli-pm-bennett-says-iran-has-crossed-nuclear-red-lines-2021-09-27 to get a nuclear bomb.

Ayatollah Ali Khanei, the supreme leader of Iran, blamed America for the suspension in talks.

Ayatollah Khanei appears to believe that waiting will get him a better deal with Washington. He has time on his side,” stated Meir Javedanfar (Iran lecturer, Israel’s Reichman University).

Washington and Tehran still don’t agree on the right steps to take and when they should be taken. The key questions are what Tehran is willing to accept as nuclear limits and Washington’s plans for removing sanctions.

A former Iranian official said that the fact that Washington and Tehran paused indirect negotiations after Raisi’s election was an indication of Tehran’s plans to “press for major concessions” with the United States.

The establishment also weighs different strategies to gain more or less. He said that it takes time for them to decide their strategy.

Henry Rome, Eurasia Group analyst, stated that Naming Ali Bagheri Kani as the chief nuclear negotiator, a fervent critic of 2015’s pact signals Tehran will adopt a tough approach to the negotiations.

ECONOMIC RISK

Tehran wants Washington to lift the Trump-era sanctions through a transparent process. Europe must also guarantee that foreign investors will return and give assurances to Washington not to renege on this deal.

For his part, Biden wants to restore the pact’s nuclear limits and, if possible, extend them https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-tiptoes-through-sanctions-minefield-toward-iran-nuclear-deal-2021-05-17 while pushing back against what he has called Iran’s other destabilizing activities.

Sanam Vakil, deputy director of Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Program, said Iran would ‘win’ if it gained further concessions from Washington, but should the deal collapse Iran’s rulers sense that they could survive through “maximum resistance”, a reference to economic self-reliance.

Iran’s slowing down strategy may weaken its clerical leaders and further harm an already struggling economy with oil revenues.

The authorities fear a re-eruption of unrest among its core supporters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/eu-sanctions-iran-militia-police-three-prisons-over-2019-protests-2021-04-12 – lower-income Iranians – whose periodic bouts of protest in recent years reminded them how vulnerable they could be to popular anger over economic hardships https://www.reuters.com/article/us-iran-economy-rial-analysis-idUSKBN2480M3.

Rome stated that Iran’s failure to revive its nuclear agreement would pose a real economic threat. However, politics is more important than economics at the moment.