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BoE’s Pill says size and duration of inflation spike bigger than expected By Reuters


© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: An e-shopper departs a Morrisons grocery in Bradford, England on January 9, 2003. REUTERS/Ian Hodgson/File photo

LONDON, (Reuters) – While the recent spike in inflation has been more than anticipated, interest rates will likely remain low over time according to Huw Pill, Chief Economist at Bank of England.

Pill stated that “as the pandemic recedes, and the level and composition global demand and supply normalizes”, these inflationary pressures will subside.” He was responding to lawmakers’ questions published Thursday.

But the intensity and length of this transient inflation spike are higher than we expected.

His remarks matched the BoE’s September policy statement which stated Britain’s consumer inflation rate rate likely to exceed 4%. That’s more than twice what the BoE had set for. It also said that the case for the BoE raising interest rates after the coronavirus pandemic was growing.

Pill claimed that central bank forecasts of inflation and economic risks were now “again clearly becoming one-sided” due to the global pandemic. But, it was not likely for the BoE to increase rates too much.

He said that interest rates would remain relatively low for the next few years even though COVID-19’s impact recedes.

Goldman Sachs (NYSE :)’s former economist stated that while negative interest rates are now part the BoE’s arsenal, they “both feasible” and will likely ease monetary circumstances. However they weren’t a panacea.

On Thursday, the BoE conducted a survey to find that British companies have raised inflation expectations.

According to the BoE, year-ahead price inflation is expected to rise to 3.5% over the three months through September 2022 from 3.2% as of August’s survey.

Nearly 2,900 businesses were surveyed between Sept. 3-17, just before the recent rise in energy costs and an increase of shortages of supplies and personnel. This has led some private economists say that Britain will see a 5% consumer price inflation rate.

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Mike Robinson
Mike covers the financial, utilities and biotechnology sectors for Street Register. He has been writing about investment and personal finance topics for almost 12 years. Mike has an MBA in Finance from Wake Forest University.