Allison Lampert

MONTREAL (Reuters). Despite the backing of key commercial players, net zero emissions is a realistic goal for 2050. But high costs and opposition by China are still obstacles to achieving a global target on climate change at a United Nations aviation conference next fall.

Major plane and engine makers joined airlines gathering in Boston earlier this week to commit https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defense/airlines-accelerate-climate-pledge-industry-talks-2021-10-04 to the goal, as aviation faces mounting pressure to reduce emissions from flights.

China’s state-controlled airlines protested at IATA meeting. They said developing nations should not be subject to the same standards that developed countries. This is a reflection of longstanding divisions, which some view as dress rehearsals for Montreal 2022.

This same division at IATA may make it hard for countries to work together towards a common goal in aviation.

Airlines ask members of International Civil Aviation Organization to help them support a long-term global goal. This would encourage governments to act to reach the goal, such as funding sustainable aviation fuel production.

Annie Petsonk (the U.S. Transportation Department’s principal deputy assistant secretary in aviation and international affairs), stated that the ICAO faces an “immensive challenge” and is at risk of losing its credibility.

IATA’s 2050 Plan requires large quantities of sustainable aviation fuel. However, it is difficult to find and more costly than traditional jet fuel.

Petsonk said that ICAO can identify and agree to a clear, long-term aspirational goal. This will be a huge difference in pointing toward that goal.

ICAO can’t impose any rules on governments, but it has the power to influence its 193 members.

The landmark 2015 Paris climate agreement, which required countries to reduce global temperature rises to 2° Celsius (3.6° Fahrenheit above preindustrial levels) and preferably to 1.5 degrees Celsius, was not applicable to aviation. Scientists believe the world must reduce its emissions to zero net by 2050.

Officials from the airline industry stated that the IATA has now committed to align the industry with the 1.5 degree target. According to environmentalists, this commitment is insufficient. Weeks ahead of the U.N. COP26 global conference on climate in Glasgow, this net zero goal by the association is not enough.

Talks will be held at ICAO to discuss aviation. The West is seeking a long-term goal that China supports. China is expected to become the largest aviation market in the next decade.

The ICAO’s governing body is weighing both the long-term impact on growth and costs of aviation in order to determine which countries are most affected, with a special focus on developing nations.

Angie Elyazzy (ICAO council member from Egypt), stated at a recent industrial forum, “We need a reasonable goal.”

She stated that “the goal shouldn’t just be one-size fits all”, adding that developed countries should take more responsibility because they have produced more carbon in the past.

China Eastern State Carrier also called IATA at this week’s IATA meeting to acknowledge the problems faced by the developing world – an issue that has been a source of division in previous climate negotiations.

“I think that we’re all going to witness the same debate unfold at ICAO at the next assembly,” Dan Rutherford said, the aviation director of the International Council on Clean Transportation (an environmental research group based out Washington).

The United Nations reports that more than 130 countries have or are contemplating a goal of decreasing their emissions to zero net by 2050.

China instead targets to be “carbon-neutral” by 2060. Scientists disagree, however, and say the aim won’t do enough to mitigate more extreme climate changes.

“It’s going to be challenging to get an agreement at ICAO next year,” said one aviation official involved in the talks. The official stated that disputes are not always technical but can also be political.

Rutherford suggested that the Chinese carrier IATA might take further actions to help ICAO, as their concerns did not affect the final outcome of the airline meeting.

“It is significant that they (Chinese carrier) did not obstruct.