Average daily Covid cases in the U.S. fell below 100,000 Thursday as the pandemic shows further signs of easing with more than 56% of the population fully immunized against the virus — a starkly different trend than the record-setting surge the country was heading toward last fall.

The country has been steadily decreasing in cases since its most recent high of 172,500 daily average infections, which occurred on September 13, according to Johns Hopkins University data. The data indicates that this is the first day in which daily cases fell below 100,000 per day since August. However, experts warn against overestimating the risks despite positive trends.

“I think right now, it looks like we’re in for a relatively tough fall with sustained transmission of Covid in our communities,” said Dr. Barbara Taylor, an assistant dean and professor of infectious diseases at the University of Texas Health Science Center at San Antonio. Although the infection rate is high, she stated that it does not mean the country has recovered. However, she expressed optimism about the fact that there were no new cases. “But we don’t know everything.

Although infections were lower than today’s at this point last year, they quickly rose and reached an all-time high of 250,000 cases per day after January 11. Following suit, the death toll climbed until it reached 3,400 daily in early 2021. 

In the United States, encouraging indicators are being seen in terms of hospitalizations and deaths. According to the Department of Health and Human Services about 69,000 Americans currently reside in hospitals with Covid. This is down from almost 104,000 people who were admitted on Sept. 1. The current average daily death rate is about 1,680, which represents a decline of 18% from the peak point at roughly 2,050 per person on Sept. 22.

The decline in death rates is encouraging but the U.S. deaths per day is still tragic, according to Dr. Jeremy Faust of Brigham and Women’s Hospital.

We’re so used to numbers, even 500 deaths per day in the coming winter could be viewed as a victory by certain people just because they’re not more than 3,000. This is so tragic! Faust is also an instructor at Harvard Medical School.

Hospitalizations, deaths and cases are now all higher than last year. This is despite the fact that the nation was experiencing a delta-type epidemic in summer 2013. In June, average daily case numbers were just 11,400.

Covid vaccines will make a significant difference for 2021. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports that nearly two-thirds (or more) of Americans have had at least one vaccination and that 56.2% are completely vaccinated.

“You cannot ignore the immense individual and population protection that vaccines have afforded America,” Dr. Isaac Bogoch of the University of Toronto, an infectious disease doctor and professor.

Yet, this latest contagious outbreak caused by the deadly delta variant of Covid has risen despite U.S. officials having vaccinated at least 216,000,000 Americans in just ten weeks. Officials in the United States have stated repeatedly that Covid is a serious disease and many of those who are currently being hospitalized or dying from it are not vaccinated. Experts warn that the danger could be increased by the onset of colder weather in fall and winter, when people gather in areas with poor ventilation where Covid can quickly spread.

Taylor stated that when it gets cold outside, everyone goes inside, closes windows and has less air circulation. Taylor also said that heating places will increase transmission.

There are still challenges in certain parts of the country. With sharp declines in infections occurring in states such as Texas, Louisiana and Florida, the Midwest now has the highest average number of new daily cases per capita.

Four of the eight states where case numbers have increased by at least 5% in the last week include Illinois, Michigan and Minnesota. 

Former Food and Drug Administration Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb said that falling numbers in the south contribute heavily to America’s downward trend. However, he also stated that some areas of the country may have delta.

On CNBC, Gottlieb said that while the national situation appears to be improving, it is being driven by sharp falls in south-facing cases. However, the current situation in the West and Midwest makes it very challenging.” Gottlieb sits on Pfizer’s board of directors. “Squawk on the Street”This Wednesday 

Gottlieb indicated that the Northeast has seen the lowest population-adjusted rate of new cases during the Delta surge. He expects there to be a pick up in cases however, nothing like the South or Midwest.

Others agreed with them. It will all depend on Americans’ behaviour during the holiday season as to how the U.S. pandemic unfolds over the coming months. Get vaccinated, get booster shots, and avoid large crowds to prevent holiday epidemics.

Farber stated that “unvaccinated persons should not be invited to parties.”

They encouraged Americans to practice “commonsense,” stating that people need to still use masks, social distance and keep their eyes open when they are indoors or in crowds. This is especially important for the elderly and those who have weak immune systems.

Bogoch, an infectious diseases expert said: “When there’s tens and even tens of million of people who are still unvaccinated it can be hard to believe that the worst has passed.”

Disclosure: Scott Gottlieb, a CNBC contributor, is a member the Pfizer and Tempus genetic testing startup, as well as Aetion, Aetion, and Illumina. As co-chair of Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings’ and Royal Caribbean’s “Healthy Sail Panel”, he also plays a key role.