By Jan Strupczewski

BRUSSELS, (Reuters) – A Polish court’s ruling challenging EU law’s supremacy has thrown the EU into crisis. It also raises questions about Eastern Europe’s future within the bloc.

It is not clear how the drama will unfold from this point.

What HAPPENED?

The Constitutional Tribunal of Poland, composed of judges appointed by the Eurosceptic Nationalists of Law and Justice (PiS) ruled that many points from articles 1 and 19, as well as other EU treaties, were not compatible with Polish law.

The escalation in the battle against Brussels for the rule of law and, in particular, the independence of judiciary has been raging since late 2015, when the PiS came to power.

WHY IS THE EU CONCERNED BY THIS EXISTING PROBLEM?

As a legal entity the EU is founded on the principle of all EU members recognising the superiority of EU laws, and the fact only the Court of Justice of the European Union can interpret them.

A member state that rejects EU law’s primacy over its national laws and CJEU’s interpretation of it will be disowning the fundamental principle upon which the EU was founded.

It raises doubts about the viability and sustainability of the EU if that decision is accepted.

COULD IT FORCE a ‘POLEXIT”?

Poland adopted the EU Treaties when it joined the bloc, in 2004 through referendum and parliamentary ratification. Although the same constitution tribunal was established at the time, it had previously been composed of judges appointed by themselves.

Warsaw, however, has refused to follow CJEU orders that the court must remove changes made to its judiciary that undermine its independence or that the Czech Republic must pay daily penalties to it in relation to an environment dispute.

Officials from the EU claim that the ruling of the tribunal was intended to allow the Polish government to disregard the CJEU’s decision, but it effectively excludes Poland from the EU’s legal system.

There’s no push to leave Poland, as there was in Britain prior to its 2016 Brexit referendum. And the Polish government insists that they don’t want any ‘Polexit.

The Constitutional Tribunal’s ruling could also be understood as an indication that Poland’s judiciary is already de facto ready to leave the EU, abandoning the legal foundation on which it stands.

The outcome of the crisis depends on Warsaw’s response to the court ruling and how it applies it. It also will determine whether or not it ignores existing CJEU decisions.

WHAT CAN HAPPEN NEXT

EU officials claim that the ruling will cause more confusion in Poland’s legal system. Some judges may apply EU law directly to their verdicts, while others might fear penalties from the PiS-appointed court of disciplinary.

The European Commission is the Guardian of EU Laws and could initiate an “infringement proceeding” against Poland at the CJEU in response to this ruling. This would force Poland to recognize the EU’s supremacy. Warsaw could be fined if this process takes weeks to months.

These legal actions were taken by the Commission against Germany after the German Constitution Court questioned the legality for the EU Recovery Fund Project. However, the Polish case raises questions about the foundation of EU construction.