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Stock market on comeback trail heads into what’s supposed to be another stellar earnings season

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One of New York’s top traders works in a New York Stock Exchange booth (NYSE) on October 6, 2021.

Brendan McDermid | Reuters

It was difficult for stocks to stay down during this week. The earnings reporting season starts next week. If profits are good, it could help boost the return.

After a Washington debt ceiling crisis, the major averages have a positive week ahead. Legislators finally approved a temporary deal to extend the debt ceiling through December. This will eliminate the risk of the overhang for the markets.

Add surging oil pricesAnd a disappointing jobs reportInvestors buying up energy and bank shares add to the other major worries caused by this week’s price action.

Ryan Detrick is chief market strategist for LPL Financial.

A market pullback that began in September brought the S&P 500 down more than 5% from its record at one point on Monday, before stocks mounted a comeback. For the week, the S&P 500 added back about 1% and sits just 3% away from its record.

Goldman Sachs, which predicted stocks would climb the wall to worry in early February, stuck with its bullish year end forecast. The stocks did.

David Kostin is Goldman’s U.S. Equity strategist said in a note to clients that his year-end S&P 500 price target for 2021 is still 4,700, which is nearly 7% above its current level.

Goldman said earnings growth, not valuation expansion, was the primary driver of the 17% S&P 500 equity return year-to-date and that should continue to be the case.

Season of earnings begins

Earnings season — which kicks off next week with big bank earnings — is expected to be another strong series of reports, despite some worries about supply chain issues and higher costs. For the third quarter, S&P 500 earnings growth is expected to rise 27.6% year-over-year, according to FactSet. This would mark the third highest growth rate in S&P 500 earnings since 2010.

Detrick said, “We have seen record earnings seasons over the past quarters so we will all be watching to see whether earnings can justify stocks at all-time high levels.” Detrick stated that while we expect another solid earnings season this year, corporate America may have to meet some very high standards. Get ready to get your feet wet.

Bank earnings will dominate next week. JPMorgan Bank of America (Bank of America), Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Goldman Sachs and Bank of America all report next week.

Analysts are now looking for catalysts to fuel their recovery after a difficult few months. Wall Street expectsThe major banks report on loan growth, reserve release and interest rates.

Jim Paulsen (Leuthold Group chief investor strategist) stated that earnings for the quarter’s third quarter will be stronger than expected. According to Leuthold Group chief investment strategist Jim Paulsen, hours worked for the third quarter rose by 5%. This suggests that the quarter’s real GDP could be as high as 7%.  Solid real GDP growth, which is a strong indicator of companies’ pricing power should lead to another strong season for corporate earnings.

Paulsen thinks that earnings season should reward cyclicals such as banks and small cap stocks more than technology shares.  

He added that he believes the stock markets are already showing signs of a leader shift from slow economic development favorites, including growth, tech and defensive, to more sensitive areas like small caps or cyclicals.

Higher cost alerts for supply chain

Earnings season will be very strong but there could be warning signs regarding inflation and supply restrictions that may scare the markets about the year end set-up.

Peter Boockvar (Bleakley Advisory Group chief investor officer) stated, “The risk of higher inflation, Fed tapring and what will most likely be a chokeppy earnings season are still here.”

Last week, we saw the beginning of it when Bed Bath and Beyond crashed 25% following the acquisition by another company. said it saw a steep drop-off in traffic in August. Bed Bath & Beyond saw steeper inflation costs escalating over the summer months, especially toward the end of its second quarter in August, which corroded profits.

What investors know going into the third quarter —from company guidance — is that there could be haves and have nots this earnings season.

For the third quarter, 47 S&P 500 companies have issued negative earnings guidance and 56 companies have issued positive outlooks, according to FactSet.

Headwinds ahead for the Fed

Friday’s headline job number was disappointing. The economy only added 194,000 jobs in September. This is well below the Dow Jones forecast of 500,000. Positively, however, the unemployment rate dropped to an even lower level than forecast by economists. It’s at 4.8% as it was in the second half of 2016.

Uncertain if this number will change how the Federal Reserve calculates when and how quickly it will reduce its $120-billion-per-month bond buying program.

Christopher Harvey, Senior Equity Analyst at Wells Fargo Securities, stated that these numbers are “good enough” and, when combined with debt-ceiling could be kicked down, will likely make November the ‘go time for tapering.”

“We still expect a choppy stock market rally, and a 2-to-4-week tech bounce. However, the bounce likely peters out next year when the Fed makes those magic words: The Fed will begin to taper,” said he.

Week ahead calendar

Monday

(Bond Market closed

Tuesday

NFIB Small Business Index, 6:00 A.M.

10:00 AM JOLTS Job Opportunities

Fastenal earnings

Wednesday

8:30 AM CPI

Minutes of the FOMC at 2:05 p.m.

Earnings JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock

Thursday

8:30 AM PPI

8:15 AM Weekly Jobless Claims

EarningsBank of America. Morgan Stanley. Citigroup. Walgreens. Boots Alliance. Wells Fargo. Domino’s Pizza. U.S. Bancorp. UnitedHealth

Friday

8:30 Retail Sales

10:00 am University of Michigan Consumer Survey

Earnings Goldman Sachs, J.B. Hunt, PNC Financial

— with reporting from CNBC’s Michael Bloom.

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