NIO Inc. (NIO) is a number one Chinese language EV firm that retains rising at a speedy tempo, and has managed to create a robust model that’s wanted in its residence market.
On the identical time, NIO seems cheap relative to how Tesla (NASDAQ:) is valued, though it must be famous that NIO will not be worthwhile but.
Additionally, its shares are costly relative to how most legacy auto firms are valued, which is why I’m impartial on the inventory right this moment. (See Analysts’ Prime Shares on TipRanks)
Engaging Progress in Dwelling Market
NIO presents a variety of various fashions, together with the EP9 sports activities automotive, the ES8 SUV, the ET7 sedan, and the ES6 and EC6 SUVs.
Whereas NIO primarily sells these in its residence market of China, gross sales exterior of China have simply begun in Europe.
NIO has managed to develop its gross sales volumes at a extremely enticing tempo during the last couple of quarters: Throughout the first quarter of the present 12 months, income was up greater than 500% year-over-year, though the impression of the pandemic throughout the earlier 12 months’s Q1 made for a straightforward comparability.
Even throughout the second quarter, when the comparability was extra telling, NIO nonetheless managed to develop its prime line by greater than 140% year-over-year, nonetheless.
NIO generated revenues of $1.2 billion and $1.3 billion throughout Q1 and Q2, respectively, and it’s anticipated that income has hit a brand new report in Q3 (outcomes haven’t been reported but). Throughout the month of September, NIO managed to ship 10,628 autos, which was a report quantity for the corporate, and which positions the corporate effectively for sturdy quarterly outcomes.
It was additionally a 125% year-over-year enchancment, and NIO additionally was capable of rebound from considerably weaker deliveries throughout August — NIO’s administration blamed that month’s weak gross sales numbers on the worldwide chip scarcity that plagued most car firms.
With NIO’s gross sales bettering by 80% in September, relative to August, it seems just like the headwinds from the worldwide semiconductor scarcity are waning, nonetheless.
NIO is forecasted to see its income develop to $5.6 billion this 12 months, which looks like a really achievable purpose, since slightly greater than $2.5 billion has already been locked in throughout H1.
With ongoing sequential enhancements, producing a complete of $2.9 billion throughout Q3 and This fall must be an achievable goal. Past 2021, the expansion outlook stays very wholesome.
Analysts are at present predicting that NIO will generate revenues of $9.4 billion in 2022 (67.1% progress versus 2021), and $13.6 billion in 2023 (45% progress versus 2022).
Cheaper Than Tesla
Progress has its value, and it’s thus not stunning to see that NIO trades at a steep premium relative to the valuations most legacy car firms commerce at.
It’s extra telling to have a look at a comparability to Tesla, nonetheless, and NIO doesn’t look too unhealthy on that entrance. NIO trades at 7.5x subsequent 12 months’s anticipated income, whereas Tesla is at present valued at 13x.
One can argue that Tesla deserves a premium resulting from its established profitability and first-mover benefit, however alternatively, one can even argue that NIO ought to commerce at a premium resulting from its increased anticipated progress.
Turning to Wall Avenue, NIO has a Robust Purchase consensus ranking, based mostly on the seven unanimous Buys assigned within the final three months. At $62.44, the typical NIO value goal implies 71.9% upside potential.
Disclosure: On the time of publication, Jonathan Weber didn’t have a place in any of the securities talked about on this article.
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