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Inflation Expectations Among U.S. Consumers Hit New Highs in Fed Survey By Bloomberg

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© Bloomberg. On Thursday September 16, 2021, a pedestrian carries a shopping bag in San Francisco (California), United States. In August, prices paid to Americans rose less than predicted. This follows a series of substantial gains which suggests that inflation may be beginning to slow. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) — U.S. consumers’ expectations for inflation continued to rise in September amid elevated price pressures, according to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York survey.

American household expectations for inflation one year ahead rose to 5.3% last month from 5.2% in August, while median expected inflation three years ahead rose to 4.2% from 4%, results of the New York Fed’s monthly Survey of Consumer Expectations, published Tuesday, showed. Both marked the highest readings on record in the survey’s eight-year history.

Inflation, as measured by the Fed’s preferred gauge, was 4.3% in the 12 months through August, well above the central bank’s 2% target. Fed Chair Jerome Powell and others have attributed the high inflation rates to supply chain bottlenecks as well as other temporary pressures that are tied to the recovery of the economy after the coronavirus pandemic has receded. They expect the inflation rate to drop to 2% at the end of next fiscal year.

However, central banks keep an eye on inflation expectations as they consider them to be key indicators of future inflation.

 

Deutsche Bank (DE) Tuesday’s economists indicated that the Fed is now expected to raise interest rates to near-zero levels starting in December 2022. This decision was made partly due to rising inflation expectations.

The New York Fed noted in Tuesday’s press release that “longer-term (5-year ahead) inflation expectations still appear to be as well anchored as they were two years ago, before the start of the pandemic,” pointing to a recent blog post on the bank’s website containing additional data from the survey.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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