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GDP forecasts by Goldman, JPMorgan, Citi, Stanchart

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A factory producing bathing suits for tourists in Jinjiang, southeast China’s Fujian Province Tuesday September 28th 2021 is where workers are employed.

Barcroft Media – Getty Images| Barcroft Media | Getty Images

BEIJING — Ahead of China’s quarterly growth numbers due out on Monday, most major investment banks have trimmed their economic predictions for the year and warned that abrupt power cutsA property market crash can slow growth.

CNBC monitored estimates for China’s full-year GDP figures from 13 large banks. CNBC found that 10 have reduced their forecasts in August. Following the most recent cuts, the median forecast for growth is 8.2% in this year’s GDP. This is 0.3 percentage point less than the previous median forecast.

CNBC monitored Japanese investment bank Nomura, which has the lowest China full-year outlook at 7.7%. DBS in Southeast Asia, the largest bank is 8.8%.

Below are forecasts from banks for the entire year.

China’s GDP projections are being lowered by the banks

China’s forecasts not changed by banks

  • Credit Suisse 8.2%
  • DBS8.8%
  • UBS 8.2%

China’s Economic Landscape

This year has seen negative growth factors increase, with a range of slower-than-expected consumer spendingTo disruptive floods. Beijing’s vast-ranging policies add to the uncertainty regulatory crackdownThese include indebted property developers as well as monopolistic conduct by giant internet technology companies.

China’s strong export growth is a positive sign. China’s economy expansion continues to accelerate and will surpass the IMF’s global growth prediction of 5.9%.

China appears to be using this year’s opportunity to make necessary, but painful adjustments to its economy according to analysts. This year’s official GDP target is lower than the prediction of investment banks.

— CNBC’s Gabrielle See contributed to this report.

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