ROME (Reuters) – Italy’s business lobby Confindustria said on Saturday the country’s growth this year would be more robust than expected, mainly due to a more contained impact of the COVID-19 Delta variant and stronger-than-expected economic indicators.

CSC, an association research unit, forecast that gross domestic product would increase by 6.1% and 4.1% in 2018, respectively, surpassing pre-pandemic levels.

According to the research unit, Italy’s GDP was expected to rise 4.1% by 2021.

The forecasts are just slightly above the 6% that Mario Draghi, the head of the national unity government, has for it this year.

Last year, Italy experienced the most severe recession postwar in its history with 8.9% GDP contraction. It is now clear that the firm pickup has led to a decrease in public debt and public deficits than expected.

CSC warned that GDP growth will be more moderate starting in the fourth quarter of 2012.

According to the company, its estimations took into consideration Italy’s recovery plan worth multi-billions of euros. This was partially funded by EU funds.

The forecasts also included downside risks such as new COVID-19 limitations, lack of raw material that could slow down production, and structural inflation.

Carlo Bonomi, President of Confindustria, stated that although recovery is well under way it was crucial to keep “the guard up”.

He stated that Italy must grow at an annual rate of 1.5-2 percent, which is achievable and equal to the 1997-2007 growth.