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Defaults risks for other developers, PBOC on Evergrande


Photograph taken from the air of a “riverview house” at the Yangtze River. Yichang, Hubei Province, Oct. 16, 2020.

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The fallout in China’s property sector is showing no signs of abating, as more developers face the threat of default — even as uncertainty over the fate of heavily indebted EvergrandeLooms

The Chinese real estate developer is the focus of all eyes Sinic HoldingsThe developer warned that they are unlikely to be able repay the $250 million in offshore bonds due Monday. The developer had not yet responded to our request for comment at noon. CNBC reached out the company.

Another developer will be joining us Friday China Properties GroupThe company stated that it defaulted in $226 million of its notes due to the failure to get funds by Oct. 15, maturity.

They were not the first — Fantasia HoldingsHad failed to pay a $206 million bond payment in October.

Rating agencies have issued yet another round last week of downgrades on Chinese real-estate companies.

This week, Evergrande will officially be in default if it doesn’t pay up for interest to a U.S.-dollar denominated offshore bond – the payment was due in late September but has a 30-day grace period. Four other bonds due within the last few weeks were not paid by Evergrande.

These developments come as China’s central bank said Friday that the risks posed by Evergrande are “controllable,” and that most real estate businesses in the country are stable.

However, the People’s Bank of China also said property firms that have issued bonds overseas — referred to as offshore bonds — should actively fulfil their debt repayment obligations.

Yi Gang from the central bank made some additional remarks on Sunday. According to him, authorities would work to stop Evergrande’s problems spreading to other real-estate firms. according to Reuters.

According to the news agency, he also stated that China’s economic performance was good but there were risks such as defaults from certain companies’ mismanagement.

CNBC Pro provides more details about China

China’s property developers are growing rapidly after years of debt. Authorities introduced the “three redlines” policy in January to address this problem. This policy sets a ceiling on the amount of debt a company can incur in relation to its cash flows, capital and assets.

After the policy began to restrict developers, things came to an abrupt halt. Evergrande, the world’s largest developer and most indebted, warned twice last month that it might default. 

Since then, it has missed three interest payments on its U.S. dollar bonds. The stock has been suspended from Oct. 4 and ratings agencies have downgraded other real estate firmsConcerns about cash flow are a major concern.

The trading of Chinese real-estate bonds jumped to more than $1 billion by October, compared to $600 millions in August according to MarketAxess’ data. It said that Evergrande’s 8.75% bond, due to mature in 2025, is currently the second most traded emerging-market bond on their platform.

More ratings downgrades

Last week, another round of downgrades was made at Chinese real estate companies.

CNBC reached out to each firm for comments, but they have yet not responded.

1. China Aoyuan
On Friday evening, S&P Global Ratings downgraded
China AoyuanOne of China’s largest developers, Guangdong Province’s. It focuses on China’s Greater Bay region. Rating agency failed to mention the high level of debt and stated that the company’s efforts to decrease debt would slow down over the coming year.

The report also highlighted Aoyuan’s “considerable” bond maturities due 2022 which could put additional pressure on the property company.

The one thing that we know is certain is the fact that the real estate sector is suffering.

Julian Evans-Pritchard

senior China economist, Capital Economics

Deleveraging efforts will be hindered by the company’s decreased visibility into revenue growth and continuing margin pressure. Weakening cash generation will also pressure Aoyuan’s liquidity as it faces sizable maturities in 2022, despite our expectation that the company can still sort out the repayment under a tighter situation,” S&P said.

2. Modern Land
Fitch has also been downgraded Modern LandFriday’s announcement cited the decision of the developer to postpone for three years repayment on a bond offshore worth $250 million.

3. Greenland Holding
Preceding Friday’s downgrades, S&P on Thursday downgraded Greenland Holding — one of the bigger real estate developers which has prestigious properties in cities such as New York, London and Sydney. The firm also mentioned its limited funding access which could limit its ability weather any downturns in the real estate industry. Fitch indicated that the company’s ability generate cash will slow down.

Fitch reported that Greenland’s bonds prices had deteriorated again due to wider investor concern over the sector. A prolonged decline in bond prices could affect the trust of purchasers, suppliers and borrowers.

China property’struggling’: Capital Economics

Capital Economics released a Friday note stating that new home sales are down 25% in the last week and now stands at 25% below 2019.

Julian Evans-Pritchard (Capital Economics Senior China Economist) stated that “The Evergrande disaster has most likely caused homebuyers to be concerned about whether developers will honor presale commitments.”

According to the economist, land purchases by developers are falling as they attempt to “batten down” the financing constraints and slow sales. The economist said that this indicates a possible pullback in construction of new housing projects over the next few months.

“One thing is certain is that the sector of property is suffering,” he said.

He expects that there will be more policy relaxation in the sector as authorities seek to increase housing demand. Evans-Pritchard suggested that this could include lowering the minimum down payment requirements for homebuyers and rate reductions to lower mortgage prices.

He said that he did not believe policymakers would relax the restrictions on development financing and allow for a rapid pick-up of overall credit growth. We believe that the leadership is committed to decreasing developer leverage.