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BoE chief economist says UK inflation could top 5% -FT -Breaking

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© Reuters. FILEPHOTO: The Bank of England is seen in London August 1st, 2018. REUTERS/Peter Nicholls/File Photo

(Reuters) – Huw Pill is the Bank of England’s chief economist. He said that inflation could rise to a “very uncomfortable 5%” in Britain and suggested that the Bank of England was still considering raising interest rates at the November meeting. This, according to the Financial Times.

Pill said in an interview that Thursday to the newspaper that the Monetary Policy Committee’s decision was “finely balanced”. He added, “I believe November is alive.”

“I would not be shocked — let’s put it that way — if we see an inflation print close to or above 5% (in the months ahead). And that’s a very uncomfortable place for a central bank with an inflation target of 2% to be,” he said.

The BoE will raise its rate by 15 basis points on Nov. 4. This would be the BoE’s first attempt to increase borrowing costs after the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020.

Inflation is expected to rise above 4% according to the BoE. However, since that prediction was made energy prices have increased further. Although the rate of economic recovery has slowed, Britain is on its way to recovering its pre-pandemic size.

Pill explained to the FT, “The bigger picture is, I believe, that there are reasons that don’t need emergency settings of policies that we saw following the intensification the pandemic.”

The newspaper reported that he suggested rates wouldn’t need to rise much above their level pre-pandemic of 0.75%.

His statement was that “We don’t see the need to adopt a restrictive policy stance” due to inflation’s transitory nature in our base case.

Andrew Bailey, the BoE governor, also stated on Sunday that although the increase in inflation is likely to be temporary the British central bank will have to manage the risks.

Pill said to the FT that he doesn’t believe wage rises are threatening inflation at the moment.

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