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Commodity strength, economic recovery brightens Indonesian rupiah’s prospects

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© Reuters. FILE PHOTO. Thai baht are seen in a Kasikornbank, Bangkok, Thailand on May 12, 2016. REUTERS/Athit Perawongmetha

By Sameer Manekar

(Reuters) – Investors were overwhelmingly positive about the Indonesian rupiah after the country’s economic prospects increased in conjunction with rising commodity prices. Meanwhile, sentiment turned back to the good, according to a Reuters survey.

A survey by nine fund managers and analysts revealed that sentiments on the Singapore Dollar turned positively, but bearish views about South Korea’s won and the Philippine peso remained.

With only a slight drop in value so far this fiscal year, the rupiah is one of the most resilient currencies in the region. This was due to a large trade deficit and rising coal prices.

The largest economy in Southeast Asia and world’s top thermal coal exporter is Indonesia. A global energy crunch is causing coal prices to reach record levels due to rising consumption in the face of supply disruptions.

The Reuters survey was done before the collapse of coal prices, when China made a promise to lower its prices. The rupee fell on Thursday due to the same worries, however analysts remain optimistic about its long-term prospects. [EMRG/FRX]

The sentiment of investors towards the Chinese Yuan has improved dramatically since its six-month-high this week. This was because markets believed that the authorities would limit the negative consequences from China Evergrande Group’s debt.

The rise in yuan comes despite the manufacturing powerhouse facing a sharp slowdown https://reut.rs/3E5ey99 in factory activity, with power shortages and a property market crisis weighing on economic growth.

Reopening economies in Southeast Asia and the easing social restrictions have boosted activity. For example, Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Thailand all removed travel restrictions and allowed social gatherings.

Foreign investors were able to capitalize on the potential growth in the region. They became net purchasers of Asian bonds in September for the sixteenth consecutive month.

In the meantime, the bearish sentiment on the Indian rupee grew due to rising oil prices. India is third in the world for oil consumption. So far, the rupee has fallen nearly 1%.

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