SARAJEVO (Reuters – Thursday’s revision by the World Bank to its economic growth forecasts in six Western Balkans countries to 5.9% in 2021, following a contraction of 3.1% in 2020 due the COVID-19 Pandemic. But the bank cautioned the fragile recovery.

The lender’s six-monthly report to the region showed that Albania, Bosnia and Kosovo, Montenegro and North Macedonia could see a 4.1% growth in 2022, and 3.8% in 2023.

Richard Record (lead country economist for Western Balkans) stated that the recovery was faster than anticipated because of two key factors.

Record stated that there were risks to maintaining growth if these factors were reversed. This means that tourism, consumption and remittances would all be affected by new international travel restrictions or lockdowns related to pandemics.

The Western Balkans are also behind European neighbors when it comes COVID-19 vaccination rates, which is below 40% for most countries except Serbia and Kosovo.

Record indicated that the region will be weighed down by high debt and a depleted fiscal area. He also stated that there will not be a significant recovery of both domestic and international investment needed to stimulate potential output.

Also, the bank stated that the pace of recovery in the labour market was slower than the economy. Therefore, structural reforms needed to improve job creation, economic transformation and green transition.

Record stated that the report was focused on the macro-fiscal issues and the drivers for greening the region’s economic growth. This is necessary, but difficult to do.

Record stated that “business as usual” is not an option because of changing external preferences. Record spoke to Reuters.