Jonathan Spicer and Daren Butler

ISTANBUL, (Reuters) – President Tayyip Erdan’s opponents claimed that Erdogan’s call for the expulsion of the 10 Western ambassadors was an attempt distract from Turkey’s economic problems. Diplomats hoped they could still prevent the expulsions.

Erdogan claimed that on Saturday he made it clear to his envoys that they were to be declared “persona nugra” for their efforts in obtaining the release of Osman Kavala (philanthropist) from jail. Erdogan has been in office for 19 years and the foreign ministry still hasn’t followed his instruction. This would be the most severe rift between Erdogan and the West.

Investor worries over the Turkish lira falling to record lows coincide with the diplomatic crisis. This is after Erdogan’s central bank unexpectedly cut interest rates 200 points.

Kemal Kilicdaroglu (leader of CHP), said Erdogan was “rapidly leading the country towards a precipice”.

On Twitter, he stated: “The purpose of these moves isn’t to protect national interest but to make artificial reasons for ruining the economy.”

Kavala is a contributing member of many civil society groups and has been held in prison since 2013. He was charged with funding nationwide protests in 2013, as well as involvement in a failed coup attempt in 2016. The charges against Kavala are not true and he remains detained while his trial is ongoing.

We’ve already seen the film. Yavuz Abilizoglu, deputy leader of opposition IYI Party said that it was time to return immediately to the real agenda and fundamental problem in this country: the economic crisis.

Erdogan stated that Kavala was impudently envoys and had no legal right to request Kavala’s freedom, while pointing out the independence of the Turkish judiciary.

Sinan Ulgen (chairman of Istanbul-based thinktank Edam) said Erdogan’s timing was strange as Turkey sought to rebalance its foreign policy from recent tension episodes.

On Twitter, he said that “I hope Ankara won’t go ahead with this” and called it an unusual measure by NATO allies. The foreign policy establishment works hard to come up with a better formula. But time running out.”

Erdogan did not always follow through on threats.

Erdogan declared that Turkey will boycott U.S. electronics goods during a dispute between Washington and Turkey in 2018. The goods’ sales were not affected. Last year, he called upon Turks not to boycott French goods because of President Emmanuel Macron’s anti-Islam agenda. However, he did not take this action.

CABINET MEETING

According to a diplomatic source, a decision about the envoys can be made at Monday’s cabinet meeting. This is in response to concerns over the possible diplomatic fallout. Erdogan said that he would meet with Joe Biden, the U.S. president at the G20 summit next weekend in Rome.

The Vienna Convention on Diplomatic Relations allows a nation to notify its diplomatic mission that the staff member they are not receiving is unacceptable. A country can recall the person concerned or end their employment.

Erdogan has controlled Turkish politics for more than two decades. However, support for Erdogan’s ruling coalition has fallen significantly in advance of 2023 elections. Partly because of dramatic rises of the cost of living.

The International Monetary Fund predicts economic growth at 9% in 2018, but inflation has been more than twice that, and the value of the Turkish lira against the dollar has dropped 50% since Erdogan won his last election.

Emre Peker from London’s Eurasia Group said that the threat of expulsions in a period when the economy is facing “massive difficulties” was at best unconsidered and at worst, a stupid gambit to boost Erdogan’s declining popularity.

“Erdogan must project power for domestic politics,” he stated, noting that often countries whose envoys are expelled retaliate through tit-fortat expulsions. “This will make it more difficult to have good relations with Washington, and the EU.”

On Oct. 18, ambassadors from Canada, Denmark and Germany as well as the United States demanded a quick and just resolution of Kavala’s case and his immediate release. Their foreign ministry called them irresponsible and summoned them.

Two years ago, the European Court of Human Rights demanded Kavala be released immediately. It stated that there was no reason to suspect that Kavala had been involved in an offense.

Soner Cagaptay of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy stated that Turkey had half its top 10 trade partners. It is a sign of Erdogan’s potential failure to increase the economy in the run-up to elections.

On Twitter, he said that Erdogan believed he could win the next Turkish election by attacking the West — despite the poor state of Turkey’s economy.